Match Info

NRL - Round 5

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Shark Park (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ


	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks		New Zealand Warriors

	1	X	2
	1.57	26	2.45
	1.65	18	2.5
	1.58	22.69	2.52	Watch
	1.53	21	2.38
	1.59	18	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.61)	21.14 ↑ (20.24)	2.47 (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 48.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
58.3%

Draw
4.4%

New Zealand Warriors
37.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.8%

4.6%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.4%

4.7%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

New Zealand Warriors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New Zealand Warriors than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks - New Zealand Warriors Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kennedy W.	1. Nicoll-Klokstad C.
2. Katoa S.	2. Watene-Zelezniak D.
3. Ramien J.	3. Pompey A.
4. Iro K.	5. Tuivasa-Sheck R.
5. Stonestreet S.	6. Metcalf L.
6. Trindall B.	7. Boyd T.
7. Hynes N.	8. Fisher-Harris J.
8. Fonua-Blake A.	9. Egan W.
9. Brailey B.	10. Ford J.
11. Burns B.	11. Halasima L.
12. Wilton T.	12. Laban J.
13. Colquhoun J.	13. Clark E.
15. Rudolf T.	21. Tuaupiki T.
Substitutes
. Hiroti M.	14. Healey S.
. Nikora B.	16. Vaimauga D.
10. Hazelton T.	17. Stowers-Smith T.
14. Talakai S.	18. Niukore M.
16. Kaufusi O.	20. Harris-Tavita C.
18. Puru H.	23. Ieremia-Toeava E.
Coaches
. Fitzgibbon C.	. Webster A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (24 - 10)
05:10, Watene-Zelezniak D. (Try),
06:42, Boyd T. (Missed Conversion),
08:43, Boyd T. (Conversion Goal),
13:44, Kennedy W. (Try),
15:09, Hynes N. (Conversion Goal),
17:06, Kennedy W. (Try),
18:34, Hynes N. (Conversion Goal),
24:21, Iro K. (Try),
25:55, Hynes N. (Conversion Goal),
27:38, Watene-Zelezniak D. (Try),
29:10, Boyd T. (Missed Conversion),
33:41, Burns B. (Try),
35:12, Hynes N. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 12)
42:06, Watene-Zelezniak D. (Try),
43:38, Boyd T. (Conversion Goal),
50:03, Wilton T. (Try),
51:35, Hynes N. (Conversion Goal),
63:46, Talakai S. (Try),
65:14, Hynes N. (Conversion Goal),
76:14, Clark E. (Try),
76:40, Boyd T. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cronulla-Sutherland won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

New Zealand may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, New Zealand has had a series of home games.

Cronulla-Sutherland is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cronulla-Sutherland won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 448:380. (average 22.4:19).

Including home matches between the teams, Cronulla-Sutherland won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 228:204. (average 22.8:20.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
Australian NRL
29.03.26	Canberra Raiders - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	22:34 ✺
21.03.26	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Dolphins	10:38 ✺
14.03.26	Penrith Panthers - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	26:6 ✺
07.03.26	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Gold Coast Titans	34:0 ✺
20.02.26	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Canberra Raiders	48:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLWW
- New Zealand Warriors
Australian NRL
27.03.26	New Zealand Warriors - Wests Tigers	14:32 ✺
21.03.26	Newcastle Knights - New Zealand Warriors	12:38 ✺
13.03.26	New Zealand Warriors - Canberra Raiders	40:6 ✺
06.03.26	New Zealand Warriors - Sydney Roosters	42:18 ✺
20.02.26	New Zealand Warriors - Dolphins	34:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
07.06.25	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - New Zealand Warriors	10:40
07.02.25	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - New Zealand Warriors	12:12
31.08.24	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - New Zealand Warriors	28:30
08.03.24	New Zealand Warriors - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	12:16
16.07.23	New Zealand Warriors - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	44:12
02.04.23	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - New Zealand Warriors	30:32
12.06.22	New Zealand Warriors - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	16:38

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - New Zealand Warriors: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide