Match Info
NRL - Round 3Date: 21 March 2026, SaturdayLocation: McDonald Jones Stadium (Newcastle)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL |
 New-zealand | SKY Go NZ |
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Newcastle Knights |
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New Zealand Warriors |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 48.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-9)
- The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Newcastle Knights
31.3% | Draw
3.5% | New Zealand Warriors
65.2% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Newcastle Knights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Newcastle Knights's form might have worsened.New Zealand Warriors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting New Zealand Warriors's recent form is better than expected.Newcastle Knights - New Zealand Warriors Predictions
Users Predictions:
2 users predict this event. New Zealand will win (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -6.5 - New Zealand (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. New Zealand (votes: 1 - 100%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 20:29 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1.  Hunt F.
| 1. Tuaupiki T.
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2.  Young D.
| 2.  Watene-Zelezniak D.
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3. Gagai D.
| 3. Leiataua A.
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4. Best B.
| 5.  Tuivasa-Sheck R.
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5. Marzhew G.
| 6. Hanson L.
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7. Smith S.
| 7. Boyd T.
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8.  Saifiti J. (C)
| 8. Fisher-Harris J. (C)
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9. Crossland P.
| 9. Egan W.
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10. Mooney T.
| 10. Ford J.
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11. Lucas D.
| 11.  Halasima L.
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12. McEwen J.
| 12. Laban J.
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15. Croker M.
| 13. Clark E.
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18. Gamble T.
| 18. Gannon M.
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| Substitutes |
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13. Frizell T.
| 14. Healey S.
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14. Cant T.
| 15. Vaimauga D.
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16. Saulo P.
| 16. Stowers-Smith T.
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17. Manuleleua F.
| 17. Niukore M.
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19. Graham H.
| 20. Khan-Pereira A.
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21. Hopwood C.
| 23. Barnett M.
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| Coaches |
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. Holbrook J.
| . Webster A.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (6 - 18)
- 3', Hunt F. (Try),
- 4', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 12', Clark E. (Try),
- 14', Boyd T. (Missed Conversion),
- 25', Boyd T. (Conversion Goal),
- 29', Ford J. (Try),
- 29', Boyd T. (Conversion Goal),
- 38', Halasima L. (Try),
- 39', Boyd T. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (6 - 20)
- 53', Fisher-Harris J. (Try),
- 54', Boyd T. (Conversion Goal),
- 55', Boyd T. (Try),
- 55', Boyd T. (Conversion Goal),
- 66', Marzhew G. (Try),
- 68', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
- 76', Tuaupiki T. (Penalty Goal),
- 80', Hanson L. (Try),
- 80', Ford J. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 1.New Zealand may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. New Zealand will hold a modest advantage in this match.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 363:420. (average 18.2:21).Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 153:142. (average 19.1:17.8).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Australian NRL | | | 20.07.25 | Newcastle Knights - New Zealand Warriors | 15:20 | | 25.04.25 | New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights | 26:12 | | 05.05.24 | Newcastle Knights - New Zealand Warriors | 14:8 | | 31.03.24 | New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights | 20:12 | | 16.09.23 | New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights | 40:10 | | 09.04.23 | Newcastle Knights - New Zealand Warriors | 34:24 | | 03.03.23 | New Zealand Warriors - Newcastle Knights | 20:12 |
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