Match Info

NRL - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday

Location: Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane)

Referee: Gee A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
France	beIN Sports 2
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Mix
Usa	FOX Sports 2


	Dolphins		Sydney Roosters

	1	X	2
	1.67	21	2.25
	1.78	18	2.2
	1.67	19	2.2	Watch
	1.73	26	2.19
	1.71	20	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.62)	20.8 ↑ (19)	2.22 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 45.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-27)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dolphins
53.9%

Draw
4.4%

Sydney Roosters
41.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.4%

4.7%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4%

4.4%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dolphins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Sydney Roosters has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dolphins than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dolphins, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sydney Roosters than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Dolphins - Sydney Roosters Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Dolphins will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Dolphins (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 37:10

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tabuai-Fidow H.	1. Tedesco J. (C)
2. Isaako J.	2. Tupou D.
3. Bostock J.	3. Smith B.
4. Farnworth H.	4. Toia R.
5. Cobbo S.	5. Nawaqanitawase M.
6. Nikorima K.	6. Cherry-Evans D.
7. Katoa I. (C)	7. Walker S.
8. Flegler T.	8. Whyte N.
9. Marshall-King J.	9. Robson R.
10. Gilbert T.	10. Collins L.
11. Plath M.	11. Foketi S.
12. Finefeuiaki K.	12. Wong S.
13. Knowles M.	13. Radley V.
Substitutes
14. Donoghoe K.	14. Watson C.
15. Stone R.	15. Crichton A.
16. Molo F.	16. Butcher N.
17. Lemuelu C.	17. Leniu S.
19. Schneider B.	18. Savala H.
20. Averillo J.	19. Ramsey C.
Coaches
. Woolf K.	. Robinson T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (6 - 16)
18', Nawaqanitawase M. (Try),
19', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
24', Radley V. (Try),
25', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
27', Tupou D. (Try),
28', Walker S. (Missed Conversion),
34', Isaako J. (Try),
35', Isaako J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 20)
43', Isaako J. (Try),
44', Isaako J. (Missed Conversion),
46', Toia R. (Try),
48', Cherry-Evans D. (Conversion Goal),
55', Collins L. (Try),
56', Cherry-Evans D. (Conversion Goal),
57', Nawaqanitawase M. (Try),
59', Cherry-Evans D. (Missed Conversion),
67', Walker S. (Try),
68', Cherry-Evans D. (Missed Conversion),
75', Finefeuiaki K. (Try),
76', Isaako J. (Missed Conversion),
77', Farnworth H. (Try),
77', Isaako J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dolphins won 2.

Dolphins has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Sydney is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Dolphins could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Dolphins has faced a series of away games on the road.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Our forecast points to a victory for Dolphins in today's match, at odds of 1.73.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Dolphins has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 160:192 (averaging 26.7:32 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Dolphins against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 94:114 goals (averaging 31.3:38 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dolphins NRL
Australian NRL
12.09.26	New Zealand Warriors - Dolphins	16:26 ✺
04.09.26	Gold Coast Titans - Dolphins	20:24 ✺
29.08.26	Sydney Roosters - Dolphins	12:26 ✺
21.08.26	Dolphins - Parramatta Eels	34:16 ✺
14.08.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Dolphins	0:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWWWW
- Sydney Roosters
Australian NRL
19.09.26	Sydney Roosters - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	46:10 ✺
13.09.26	Penrith Panthers - Sydney Roosters	19:12 ✺
04.09.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Sydney Roosters	50:20 ✺
29.08.26	Sydney Roosters - Dolphins	12:26 ✺
23.08.26	Sydney Roosters - Wests Tigers	24:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
29.08.26	Sydney Roosters - Dolphins	12:26
12.06.26	Dolphins - Sydney Roosters	48:10
09.08.25	Dolphins - Sydney Roosters	12:64
02.05.25	Sydney Roosters - Dolphins	36:26
02.08.24	Dolphins - Sydney Roosters	34:40
12.08.23	Sydney Roosters - Dolphins	30:14

Dolphins - Sydney Roosters: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide