Match Info

World Cup

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday

Location: HBF Park (Perth)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1


	England		Tonga

	1	X	2
	2.45	20	1.6
	2.45	20	1.6
	2.36	21	1.64
	2.47	20	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.18)	20.25 ↑ (16)	1.61 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 40.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-15)

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

England
38%

Draw
4.6%

Tonga
57.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.1%

5.7%

52.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

England has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Tonga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tonga's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

England - Tonga Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. England will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:13

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brimson A.	1. Hopoate W.
2. Young D.	2. Watene-Zelezniak D.
3. Savala H.	3. Koula T.
4. Farnworth H.	4. Toia R.
5. Eckersley Z.	5. JoJo
6. Williams G. (C)	6. Fainu L.
7. Smith H.	7. Katoa I.
8. King M.	8. Fonua-Blake A.
9. O'Neill B.	10. Taumalolo J. (C)
11. Nsemba J.	11. Olakau'atu H.
12. Pearce-Paul K.	12. Wong S.
13. Radley V.	13. Frizell T.
15. Thompson L.	14. Foketi S.
Substitutes
14. Litten J.	9. Luke S.
16. Havard E.	15. Utoikamanu S.
17. Walters S.	16. Vaimauga D.
18. Welsby J.	17. Halasima L.
19. Ashton M.	18. Lolohea T.
20. Currie B.	19. Alamoti P.
Coaches
. McDermott B.	. Woolf K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 10)
23', Utoikamanu S. (Try),
24', Katoa I. (Conversion Goal),
27', Katoa I. (Penalty Goal),
39', Katoa I. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 20)
45', Brimson A. (Try),
47', Savala H. (Conversion Goal),
52', Olakau'atu H. (Try),
53', Katoa I. (Conversion Goal),
55', Koula T. (Try),
57', Katoa I. (Conversion Goal),
60', Katoa I. (Penalty Goal),
62', Young D. (Try),
63', Savala H. (Conversion Goal),
70', Olakau'atu H. (Try),
73', Katoa I. (Missed Conversion),
75', Katoa I. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, England has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 82:44 (averaging 20.5:11 goals per game).

Outrights of Rugby League World Cup for now

Tonga: 9.2% England: 1.03%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- England rugby league
Friendly International Rugby League
08.11.25	England - Australia	8:30 ✺
01.11.25	England - Australia	4:14 ✺
25.10.25	England - Australia	6:26 ✺
02.11.24	England - Samoa	34:16 ✺
27.10.24	England - Samoa	34:18 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLLWW
- Tonga rugby league
Pacific Championships Rugby League
02.11.25	New Zealand - Tonga	40:14 ✺
26.10.25	Samoa - Tonga	34:6 ✺
10.11.24	Australia - Tonga	20:14 ✺
02.11.24	New Zealand - Tonga	24:25 ✺
18.10.24	Australia - Tonga	18:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Rugby League
04.11.23	England - Tonga	26:4
28.10.23	England - Tonga	14:4
22.10.23	England - Tonga	22:18
Rugby League World Cup
25.11.17	Tonga - England	18:20

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