Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Jean-Dauger (Bayonne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Aviron Bayonnais		Blue Bulls

	1	X	2
	2.3	19	1.67
	2	19	1.83
	2.32	25	1.67
	2.15	23	1.75
	2	21	1.83
	2.31	20	1.64
	2.32	25	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.32)	21.71 ↓ (23)	1.72 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aviron Bayonnais
42%

Draw
4.3%

Blue Bulls
53.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

56.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

3.9%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aviron Bayonnais has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Blue Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aviron Bayonnais than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Blue Bulls than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Aviron Bayonnais - Blue Bulls Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:27

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Castillon P.	1. Matanzima S.
2. Martin L.	2. van der Merwe A.
3. Tatafu T.	3. Louw W.
4. Poloniati S.	4. Ludwig R.
5. Moon A.	5. van Heerden J.
6. Traversier N.	6. van Staden M.
7. Bourdeau R.	7. Kirsten J.
8. Habel Kueffner G. (C)	8. Coetzee M. (C)
9. Germain B.	9. Burger Z.
10. Spring T.	10. Johannes K.
11. Mousques X.	11. Jacobs S.
12. Mori F.	12. Vorster H.
13. Erbinartegaray A.	13. Kriel D.
14. Megdoud N.	14. Petersen S.
15. Tiberghien C.	15. Williams D.
Substitutes
16. Giudicelli V.	16. Wessels J.
17. Villar M. L.	17. Tshakweni A.
18. Scholtz P.	18. Smith M.
19. Marchois D.	19. Nortje R.
20. Paulos L.	20. Hanekom C.
21. Chouzenoux B.	21. Papier E.
22. Tilloles B. J.	22. Goosen J.
23. Callandret A.	23. Gans S. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (8 - 15)
6', Germain B. (Penalty Goal),
15', Johannes K. (Penalty Goal),
16', Petersen S. (Try),
33', Mori F. (Try),
39', Ludwig R. (Try),
40', Johannes K. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 17)
45', Kriel D. (Try),
46', Johannes K. (Conversion Goal),
49', Bourdeau R. (Try),
50', Spring T. (Conversion Goal),
68', van Staden M. (Try),
69', Goosen J. (Conversion Goal),
76', Spring T. (Try),
77', Tiberghien C. (Conversion Goal),
80+1', Goosen J. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Recently Blue Bulls have a series of home games.

Blue Bulls will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
French Top 14
29.03.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Lyon	28:14 ✺
22.03.25	Stade Français - Aviron Bayonnais	31:27 ✺
02.03.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Clermont	31:18 ✺
22.02.25	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	41:6 ✺
15.02.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Bordeaux Bègles	36:32 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWLW
- Blue Bulls Rugby
United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Blue Bulls - Zebre	63:24 ✺
22.03.25	Blue Bulls - Leinster	21:20 ✺
01.03.25	Blue Bulls - Stormers	16:19 ✺
22.02.25	Blue Bulls - Lions	31:19 ✺
15.02.25	Blue Bulls - Sharks	19:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLWL

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