Match Info

FRANCE: TOP 14 - ROUND 20

Date: 4 March 2023, Saturday


	Brive		Bordeaux Bègles

	1	X	2
	2.05	23	1.8
	2.31	21	1.67
	2.2	23	1.67
	2.2	20	1.72
	2.28	21	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (1.7)	21.6 ↓ (25)	1.7 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brive
41.7%

Draw
4.3%

Bordeaux Bègles
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

3.5%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

3.2%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brive has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brive's form might have worsened.

Bordeaux Bègles has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bordeaux Bègles's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brive than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brive, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bordeaux Bègles than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Brive - Bordeaux Bègles Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Brive will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Bordeaux Bègles will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:25

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Brive won 1.

Brive is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Bordeaux Bègles is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Brive won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 334-406.

Including matches at home between the teams Brive won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 199-158.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Brive
French Top 14
25.02.23	La Rochelle - Brive	32:16 ✺
18.02.23	Racing Métro - Brive	34:24 ✺
04.02.23	Brive - Perpignan	22:24 ✺
28.01.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Brive	37:9 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
21.01.23	Brive - Cardiff Rugby	37:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LLLLW
- Union Bordeaux Bègles
French Top 14
25.02.23	Bordeaux Bègles - Perpignan	43:7 ✺
19.02.23	Bordeaux Bègles - Clermont	18:9 ✺
05.02.23	Stade Français - Bordeaux Bègles	12:6 ✺
28.01.23	Castres - Bordeaux Bègles	23:18 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
21.01.23	Bordeaux Bègles - Gloucester	17:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
03.12.22	Bordeaux Bègles - Brive	33:13
08.01.22	Brive - Bordeaux Bègles	19:22
25.09.21	Bordeaux Bègles - Brive	29:10
20.02.21	Brive - Bordeaux Bègles	25:23
12.09.20	Bordeaux Bègles - Brive	25:20
19.10.19	Brive - Bordeaux Bègles	30:9
05.05.18	Brive - Bordeaux Bègles	22:20

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