Match Info

Pro D2 - Round 22

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 6


	Carcassonne		Stade Aurillacois

	1	X	2
	1.53	21	2.6
	1.57	23	2.44
	1.61	20.08	2.48	Watch
	1.57	21	2.5
	1.55	23	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.45)	21.62 ↑ (21)	2.51 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carcassonne
59%

Draw
4.3%

Stade Aurillacois
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.4%

4.4%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

4.3%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carcassonne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Stade Aurillacois has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carcassonne than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carcassonne, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stade Aurillacois than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Carcassonne - Stade Aurillacois Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Carcassonne will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:22

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 10)
2nd Half (9 - 11)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carcassonne won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Carcassonne might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Carcassonne will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Carcassonne won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 435:451. (average 21.8:22.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Carcassonne won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 279:142. (average 31:15.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
12	Aurillac	5	1	0	4	163:197	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Carcassonne
French Pro D2
20.02.26	Carcassonne - Nevers	42:31 ✺
13.02.26	Vannes - Carcassonne	26:0 ✺
30.01.26	Carcassonne - Provence Rugby	19:23 ✺
23.01.26	Valence Romans Drôme - Carcassonne	24:17 ✺
16.01.26	Carcassonne - US Dax	20:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLLLW
- Stade Aurillacois
French Pro D2
20.02.26	Stade Aurillacois - SA XV Charente	18:3 ✺
13.02.26	US Dax - Stade Aurillacois	19:15 ✺
30.01.26	Stade Aurillacois - Valence Romans Drôme	32:21 ✺
23.01.26	Provence Rugby - Stade Aurillacois	26:10 ✺
16.01.26	Béziers - Stade Aurillacois	22:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
29.08.25	Stade Aurillacois - Carcassonne	41:10
10.02.23	Stade Aurillacois - Carcassonne	30:26
21.10.22	Carcassonne - Stade Aurillacois	27:9
15.04.22	Carcassonne - Stade Aurillacois	54:24
15.10.21	Stade Aurillacois - Carcassonne	30:23
05.03.21	Carcassonne - Stade Aurillacois	15:14
04.12.20	Stade Aurillacois - Carcassonne	23:6

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