Match Info

Pro D2 - Round 17

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 6


	Carcassonne		US Dax

	1	X	2
	2.2	19	1.73
	1.73	22	2.14
	2.06	20.13	1.85	Watch
	2.1	21	1.8
	2.23	23	1.7
	2.12	21	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.62)	21.02 ↑ (18.29)	1.83 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carcassonne
44.8%

Draw
4.4%

US Dax
50.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

5.1%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.7%

6.4%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carcassonne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carcassonne's form might have worsened.

US Dax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting US Dax's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carcassonne than the current prediction. (+26.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carcassonne, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for US Dax than the current prediction. (-20.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for US Dax, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Carcassonne - US Dax Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. US Dax (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:25

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (20 - 12)
2nd Half (0 - 3)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carcassonne won 3.

Carcassonne has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, US Dax has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Carcassonne won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 265:197. (average 22.1:16.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Carcassonne won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 167:77. (average 33.4:15.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
7	US Dax	5	3	0	2	185:187	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Carcassonne
French Pro D2
09.01.26	Oyonnax Rugby - Carcassonne	33:7 ✺
19.12.25	Carcassonne - SA XV Charente	35:31 ✺
12.12.25	Brive - Carcassonne	53:16 ✺
05.12.25	Carcassonne - Vannes	15:52 ✺
28.11.25	Provence Rugby - Carcassonne	48:16 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWLLL
- US Dax
French Pro D2
09.01.26	US Dax - Agen	20:14 ✺
19.12.25	FC Grenoble - US Dax	24:20 ✺
12.12.25	US Dax - Colomiers	13:8 ✺
05.12.25	Nevers - US Dax	32:21 ✺
28.11.25	US Dax - Mont-De-Marsan	68:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
07.11.25	US Dax - Carcassonne	19:0
09.03.18	US Dax - Carcassonne	13:18
08.12.17	Carcassonne - US Dax	43:24
07.04.17	US Dax - Carcassonne	25:10
09.12.16	Carcassonne - US Dax	36:0
01.04.16	US Dax - Carcassonne	15:20
11.09.15	Carcassonne - US Dax	30:20

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