Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 3

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Cardiff Rugby		Racing Métro

	1	X	2
	1.2	34	4.5
	1.23	28	4.2
	1.24	28.21	4.27	Watch
	1.22	29	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↑ (1.22)	29.8 ↑ (27.62)	4.33 ↓ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Rugby
75.5%

Draw
3.1%

Racing Métro
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

75.9%

3.3%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Racing Métro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Cardiff Rugby - Racing Métro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barratt R.	1. Jabea Njocke E.
2. Belcher L. (C)	2. Leota L.
3. Assiratti K.	3. Bamba D.
4. Nott G.	4. Kpoku J.
5. Thornton R.	5. Joseph J. (C)
6. Mann A.	6. Baudonne M.
7. Basham T.	7. Zinzen N.
8. Lawrence A.	8. Dayimani H.
9. Davies A.	9. Carbonneau L.
10. Sheedy C.	10. Gibert A.
11. Bowen T.	11. Donguy N.
12. Thomas B.	12. Ashvetia V.
13. Smit C.	13. James S.
14. Stephens I.
15. Beetham J.
Substitutes
16. Hughes D.	14. Ravutaumada S.
17. Domachowski C.	15. Pricsiantelli G.
18. Sebastian J.	16. Tarrit J.
19. McNally J.	17. Julien L.
20. Botham J.	18. Kharaishvili G.
21. Bevan E.	19. Taofifenua R.
22. Jennings R.	20. Albuisson A.
23. Millard H.	21. Tagitagivalu L.
	22. Labarbe K.
	23. Espeut A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 13)
1', Ravutaumada S. 🟨,
6', Gibert A. (Penalty Goal),
7', Bowen T. (Try),
8', Sheedy C. (Conversion Goal),
14', Ravutaumada S. (Try),
32', Pricsiantelli G. (Try),
40+1', Thornton R. (Try),
2nd Half (20 - 0)
45', Assiratti K. (Try),
46', Sheedy C. (Conversion Goal),
56', Sheedy C. (Penalty Goal),
66', Sheedy C. (Penalty Goal),
75', Thomas B. (Try),
76', Beetham J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Cardiff may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cardiff is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cardiff won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 26:48.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	33:22 ✺
26.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons	22:19 ✺
19.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Llanelli Scarlets	17:21 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Ulster	29:26 ✺
06.12.25	Stade Français - Cardiff Rugby	38:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLWL
- Racing Métro 92
French Top 14
03.01.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Racing Métro	62:20 ✺
27.12.25	Racing Métro - Montauban	61:16 ✺
20.12.25	Stade Français - Racing Métro	20:20 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.25	Racing Métro - Exeter Chiefs	31:31 ✺
05.12.25	Ulster - Racing Métro	61:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
20.01.24	Racing Métro - Cardiff Rugby	48:26

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