Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 8

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday

Location: Cardiff Arms Park (Cardiff)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC One, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Cardiff Rugby		Newport Gwent Dragons

	1	X	2
	1.13	34	6
	1.15	30	5.2
	1.16	29.36	5.54	Watch
	1.15	29	5.5
	1.14	26	6
	1.14	26	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.15 ↓ (1.16)	29.06 ↓ (29.36)	5.62 ↑ (5.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Rugby
80.4%

Draw
3.2%

Newport Gwent Dragons
16.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

80.1%

3.2%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Newport Gwent Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Cardiff will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:19

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 12)
2nd Half (10 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 5.

In this match, Cardiff is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 20 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 515:360. (average 25.8:18).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 298:182. (average 29.8:18.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
19.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Llanelli Scarlets	17:21 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Ulster	29:26 ✺
06.12.25	Stade Français - Cardiff Rugby	38:17 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.11.25	Zebre - Cardiff Rugby	14:29 ✺
25.10.25	Cardiff Rugby - Edinburgh	20:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWLWW
- Newport Gwent Dragons
United Rugby Championship
20.12.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Connacht	48:28 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Lyon	23:21 ✺
07.12.25	Perpignan - Newport Gwent Dragons	41:17 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.11.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Leinster	10:24 ✺
25.10.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys	19:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
17.10.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Cardiff Rugby	17:24
26.12.24	Newport Gwent Dragons - Cardiff Rugby	22:24
30.11.24	Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons	31:23
26.12.23	Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons	55:21
29.10.23	Newport Gwent Dragons - Cardiff Rugby	9:16
26.12.22	Newport Gwent Dragons - Cardiff Rugby	24:29
15.10.22	Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons	31:14

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