Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 2

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports MAX 7
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, S4C Digital, S4C


	Cardiff Rugby		Ulster

	1	X	2
	1.44	21	2.88
	1.44	22	2.85
	1.22	20.41	4.78	Watch
	1.4	23	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↑ (1.29)	21.6 ↓ (25.07)	3.38 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Rugby
68%

Draw
4.3%

Ulster
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.7%

3.7%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Ulster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Cardiff Rugby - Ulster Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barratt R.	1. Reid C.
2. Hughes D.	2. Stewart T. (C)
3. Assiratti K.	3. O'Toole T.
4. Nott G.	4. Sheridan H.
5. Thornton R.	5. Irvine C.
6. Botham J.	6. McCann D.
7. Thomas D.	7. Reffell S.
8. Lawrence A. (C)	8. Ward B.
9. Davies A.	9. McKee C.
10. Sheedy C.	10. Flannery J.
11. Bowen T.	11. Ward Z.
12. Thomas B.	12. Carson B.
13. Millard H.	13. Hume J.
14. Adams J.	14. Kok W.
15. Halfpenny L.	15. Moore S.
Substitutes
16. Lloyd E.	16. Andrew J.
17. Southworth D.	17. Bell A.
18. Wainwright S.	18. McGuire R.
19. McNally J.	19. Izuchukwu C.
20. Mann A.	20. Augustus J.
21. Bevan E.	21. Shanahan D.
22. Beetham J.	22. Humphreys J.
23. Winnett C.	23. McNamara B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 14)
7', Nott G. (Try),
8', Halfpenny L. (Conversion Goal),
13', Bowen T. (Try),
22', Stewart T. (Try),
23', Flannery J. (Conversion Goal),
40', Hume J. (Try),
40', Flannery J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (17 - 12)
45', Kok W. (Try),
54', Kok W. (Try),
55', Flannery J. (Conversion Goal),
65', Southworth D. (Try),
65', Sheedy C. (Conversion Goal),
68', Sheridan H. 🟨,
68', Botham J. 🟨,
73', Carson B. 🟨,
73', Thomas D. (Try),
74', Sheedy C. (Conversion Goal),
80+1', Sheedy C. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 1.

Cardiff may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cardiff is a strong favorite.

We predict that Cardiff will win today's game, with odds of 1.3.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 13 matches, and goals 331:500. (average 18.4:27.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 184:234. (average 20.4:26).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
06.12.25	Stade Français - Cardiff Rugby	38:17 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.11.25	Zebre - Cardiff Rugby	14:29 ✺
25.10.25	Cardiff Rugby - Edinburgh	20:19 ✺
17.10.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Cardiff Rugby	17:24 ✺
11.10.25	Cardiff Rugby - Connacht	14:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWWWW
- Ulster Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
05.12.25	Ulster - Racing Métro	61:7 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.11.25	Ulster - Benetton Treviso	47:13 ✺
25.10.25	Lions - Ulster	49:31 ✺
18.10.25	Sharks - Ulster	26:34 ✺
11.10.25	Ulster - Blue Bulls	28:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
26.10.24	Cardiff Rugby - Ulster	21:19
19.04.24	Ulster - Cardiff Rugby	19:17
04.03.23	Cardiff Rugby - Ulster	20:42
04.03.22	Ulster - Cardiff Rugby	48:12
02.11.20	Cardiff Rugby - Ulster	7:11
25.10.19	Ulster - Cardiff Rugby	23:14
01.12.18	Ulster - Cardiff Rugby	16:12

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