Match Info

EUROPE: Challenge Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 13 April 2024, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport News
Portugal	Sport TV2
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Clermont		Ulster

	1	X	2
	1.44	21	2.88
	1.44	23	2.8
	1.49	18	2.8
	1.44	21	2.8
	1.45	20	2.84
	1.45	23	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.36)	21 ↑ (19.8)	2.82 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Clermont
63.1%

Draw
4.4%

Ulster
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.5%

4.6%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.6%

4.3%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Clermont has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Ulster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Clermont than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Clermont, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulster than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ulster, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Clermont - Ulster Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Beria G.	1. Kitshoff S.
2. Beheregaray Y.	2. Herring R.
3. Slimani R.	3. O'Toole T.
4. Lanen T.	4. O'Connor A.
5. Lavanini T.	5. Henderson I. (C)
6. Tixeront K.	6. Sheridan H.
7. Yato P.	7. McCan D.
8. Sowakula P.	8. Timoney N.
9. Jauneau B. (C)	9. Cooney J.
10. Belleau A.	10. Doak N.
11. Raka A.	11. Lowry M.
12. Heriteau J.	12. McCloskey S.
13. Darricarrere L.	13. Hume J.
14. Delguy B.	14. Baloucoune R.
15. Newsome A.	15. Moore S.
Substitutes
16. Fourcade E.	16. Stewart T.
17. Biziwu D.	17. Warwick A.
18. Dzmanashvili G.	18. Wilson S.
19. Simmons R.	19. Izuchukwu C.
20. Fischer A.	20. Ewers D.
21. Bezy S.	21. Flannery J.
22. Giral T.	22. Mcilroy E.
23. Jurand J.	23. Rea M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (20 - 14)
12', Timoney N. (Try),
12', Cooney J. (Conversion Goal),
18', Yato P. (Try),
19', Belleau A. (Conversion Goal),
28', Belleau A. (Penalty Goal),
32', Belleau A. (Penalty Goal),
36', Sowakula P. (Try),
37', Belleau A. (Conversion Goal),
40+3', Timoney N. (Try),
40+5', Cooney J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (33 - 0)
44', Newsome A. (Try),
46', Delguy B. (Conversion Goal),
61', Sowakula P. (Try),
62', Belleau A. (Conversion Goal),
64', Simmons R. (Try),
65', Belleau A. (Conversion Goal),
68', Yato P. (Try),
69', Belleau A. (Conversion Goal),
80', Jurand J. (Try),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Clermont won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Recently Ulster have a series of guest games.

Clermont will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Clermont to win the game is with odds 1.45.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Clermont won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 166-152.

Including matches at home between the teams Clermont won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 90-61.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASM Clermont Auvergne
Challenge Cup Rugby
06.04.24	Clermont - Cheetahs	27:22 ✺
French Top 14
30.03.24	Racing Métro - Clermont	26:10 ✺
23.03.24	Clermont - Section Paloise	31:28 ✺
09.03.24	Clermont - Oyonnax Rugby	15:15 ✺
03.03.24	La Rochelle - Clermont	42:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLWTL
- Ulster Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
07.04.24	Montpellier - Ulster	17:40 ✺
United Rugby Championship
30.03.24	Stormers - Ulster	13:7 ✺
23.03.24	Sharks - Ulster	22:12 ✺
02.03.24	Ulster - Newport Gwent Dragons	49:26 ✺
18.02.24	Ospreys - Ulster	19:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
22.01.22	Ulster - Clermont	34:31
11.12.21	Clermont - Ulster	23:29
11.01.20	Clermont - Ulster	29:13
22.11.19	Ulster - Clermont	18:13
18.12.16	Clermont - Ulster	38:19
10.12.16	Ulster - Clermont	39:32

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