Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 12

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Swansea.com Stadium (Swansea)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player


	Ospreys		Ulster

	1	X	2
	2.7	21	1.5
	2.85	23	1.44
	2.99	20.93	1.44	Watch
	2.88	21	1.44
	2.98	21	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (3.04)	21.39 ↑ (20.55)	1.45 ↑ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ospreys
32%

Draw
4.3%

Ulster
63.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

4.5%

64.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

4.7%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Ulster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulster than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Ospreys - Ulster Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Ulster will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:27

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 10)
2nd Half (14 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 2.

Ospreys has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ulster is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Ospreys has had a series of home games.

In this match, Ulster is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 288:449. (average 14.4:22.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ospreys won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 169:180. (average 18.8:20).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
10	Ulster	3	0	2	1	88:93	7
12	Ospreys	3	1	0	2	81:107	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
31.01.26	Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons	19:13 ✺
23.01.26	Ospreys - Lions	24:24 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Ospreys - Montpellier	26:31 ✺
11.01.26	Zebre - Ospreys	23:19 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	33:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WTLLW
- Ulster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
31.01.26	Ulster - Cardiff Rugby	21:14 ✺
24.01.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Ulster	27:22 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Ulster - Stade Français	26:19 ✺
11.01.26	Cheetahs - Ulster	0:28 ✺
United Rugby Championship
02.01.26	Ulster - Munster	28:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
18.10.24	Ulster - Ospreys	36:12
18.02.24	Ospreys - Ulster	19:17
08.10.22	Ulster - Ospreys	47:17
04.12.21	Ospreys - Ulster	19:13
26.02.21	Ulster - Ospreys	21:7
10.10.20	Ospreys - Ulster	12:24
15.02.20	Ospreys - Ulster	26:24

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