Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPEAN RUGBY CHAMPIONS CUP - ROUND 1

Date: 10 December 2022, Saturday

Location: Kingsholm Stadium (Gloucester)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Gloucester		Bordeaux Bègles

	1	X	2
	1.33	23	3.4
	1.36	21	3.1
	1.35	25	3.25
	1.34	25	3.45
	1.33	21	3.4
	1.31	23	3.74	Watch
	1.33	24	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.57)	23.14 ↑ (23)	3.38 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gloucester
68.9%

Draw
4%

Bordeaux Bègles
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gloucester has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gloucester's performance.

Bordeaux Bègles has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bordeaux Bègles might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gloucester than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gloucester that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bordeaux Bègles than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bordeaux Bègles could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Gloucester - Bordeaux Bègles Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Gloucester will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Bordeaux Bègles will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gloucester: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:21

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Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Bordeaux Bègles could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Gloucester is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Gloucester to win the game is with odds 1.35.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Gloucester won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 53-49.

Including matches at home between the teams Gloucester won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 22-23.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gloucester Rugby
English Premiership Rugby Cup
04.12.22	Exeter Chiefs - Gloucester	50:33 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
03.12.22	Gloucester - Northampton Saints	34:19 ✺
25.11.22	Harlequins - Gloucester	21:12 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
19.11.22	Gloucester - Bristol Rugby	38:31 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
12.11.22	Gloucester - Newcastle Red Bulls	21:27 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWLWL
- Union Bordeaux Bègles
French Top 14
03.12.22	Bordeaux Bègles - Brive	33:13 ✺
26.11.22	Perpignan - Bordeaux Bègles	23:20 ✺
06.11.22	Section Paloise - Bordeaux Bègles	33:7 ✺
30.10.22	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulon	27:26 ✺
22.10.22	Clermont - Bordeaux Bègles	23:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
31.05.15	Gloucester - Bordeaux Bègles	22:23
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.01.13	Bordeaux Bègles - Gloucester	26:31

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