Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 3

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Twickenham Stoop (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player


	Harlequins		Stormers

	1	X	2
	1.33	21	3.5
	1.39	20	3.1
	1.3	23	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.91)	21.33 ↑ (17)	3.33 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harlequins
68.3%

Draw
4.3%

Stormers
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

5.4%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

5.2%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harlequins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Harlequins's performance.

Stormers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stormers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harlequins than the current prediction. (-21.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Harlequins that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stormers than the current prediction. (+20.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stormers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Harlequins - Stormers Predictions

Users Predictions: Harlequins will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Harlequins will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:26

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kerrod S.	1. Kebble O.
2. Walker J.	2. Vokozela L.
3. Delgado P.	3. Porthen Z.
4. Petti G.	4. Evans C.
5. Treadwell K.	5. Van Heerden R.
6. Cunningham-South C.	6. Nel L.
7. Kenningham J.	7. Dixon B.
8. Dombrandt A. (C)	8. Theunissen M.
9. Friday L.	9. Duvenage D.
10. Smith M.	10. Matthee J.
11. Murley C.	11. Burger L.
12. Bradley B.	12. Willemse D. (C)
13. Northmore L.	13. Hartzenberg S.
14. David N.	14. Maart D.
15. Green T.	15. Gelant W.
Substitutes
16. Turner G.	16. Ntubeni S.
17. Hobson W.	17. Matongo V.
18. Williams H.	18. van Wyk H.
19. Williams E.	19. Groves A.
20. Carr Z.	20. Mlaba W.
21. Lawday T.	21. Khan I.
22. Green M.	22. Swart C.
23. Evans J.	23. Ndhlovu M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (33 - 0)
7', Kenningham J. (Try),
8', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
11', Murley C. (Try),
16', Dombrandt A. (Try),
17', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
26', Cunningham-South C. (Try),
27', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
30', David N. (Try),
31', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (28 - 10)
52', David N. (Try),
54', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
59', David N. (Try),
60', Carr Z. (Try),
60', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
61', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
65', Khan I. (Try),
72', Maart D. (Try),
80+1', Evans J. (Try),
80+1', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Harlequins is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Stormers is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Harlequins is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Harlequins won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 81:48. (average 40.5:24).

Including home match between the teams, Harlequins won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 53:16.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harlequin FC
English Premiership Rugby
03.01.26	Northampton Saints - Harlequins	66:21 ✺
26.12.25	Sale Sharks - Harlequins	43:17 ✺
20.12.25	Harlequins - Bristol Rugby	14:40 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.25	Harlequins - Aviron Bayonnais	68:14 ✺
06.12.25	Leinster - Harlequins	52:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL
- Stormers Rugby
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Stormers - Blue Bulls	13:8 ✺
20.12.25	Stormers - Lions	34:27 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Stormers - La Rochelle	42:21 ✺
05.12.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Stormers	17:26 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.11.25	Munster - Stormers	26:27 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.24	Harlequins - Stormers	53:16
01.04.23	Stormers - Harlequins	32:28

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