Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 1

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Jean-Dauger (Bayonne)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports 3


	Aviron Bayonnais		Stormers

	1	X	2
	1.95	17	1.95
	1.96	20	1.89
	1.91	19	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.8)	18.67 ↓ (20.67)	1.92 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 41.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aviron Bayonnais
47.3%

Draw
4.9%

Stormers
47.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

4.5%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aviron Bayonnais has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Stormers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	0%	82.4%

Aviron Bayonnais - Stormers Predictions

Users Predictions: Stormers will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.23% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stormers will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Calles I.	1. Mchunu N.
2. Giudicelli V.	2. Kotze J.
3. Fepulea'i M.	3. Fouche N.
4. Garcia A.	4. Moerat S. (C)
5. Paulos L.	5. Evans C.
6. Fischer A.	6. de Villiers P.
7. Iturria A. (C)	7. Dixon B.
8. Lomidze N.	8. Ackermann R.
9. Jantjies H.	9. Khan I.
10. Segonds J.	10. Swart C.
11. Hannoun V.	11. Zas L.
12. Mori F.	12. du Plessis D.
13. Tiberghien C.	13. Roche J.
14. Spring T.	14. Maart D.
15. Orabe Y.	15. Simelane W.
Substitutes
16. Martin L.	16. Vokozela L.
17. Cormenier S.	17. Vermaak A.
18. Gonzalez H.	18. Sandi S.
19. Ariceta M.	19. Smith A.
20. Bosch F.	20. Schickerling J.
21. Marchesin R.	21. Roos E.
22. Tilloles B.	22. Duvenage D.
23. Erbinartegaray A.	23. Nel R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 16)
2', Zas L. (Try),
3', Khan I. (Conversion Goal),
16', Mori F. (Try),
23', Swart C. (Penalty Goal),
28', Swart C. (Penalty Goal),
31', Swart C. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 10)
49', Smith A. 🟥,
53', Erbinartegaray A. (Try),
61', Paulos L. (Try),
62', Spring T. (Conversion Goal),
76', de Villiers P. (Try),
77', Swart C. (Conversion Goal),
80+1', Swart C. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Bayonne has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Stormers may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
French Top 14
29.11.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Lyon	22:20 ✺
22.11.25	Racing Métro - Aviron Bayonnais	47:27 ✺
01.11.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Montauban	49:7 ✺
25.10.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Aviron Bayonnais	41:12 ✺
18.10.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Clermont	44:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWLW
- Stormers Rugby
United Rugby Championship
29.11.25	Munster - Stormers	26:27 ✺
25.10.25	Benetton Treviso - Stormers	16:31 ✺
18.10.25	Zebre - Stormers	13:31 ✺
10.10.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Stormers	0:34 ✺
03.10.25	Stormers - Ospreys	26:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWWWW

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