Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 1

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Aviva Stadium (Dublin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Portugal	Sport TV7
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Leinster		Harlequins

	1	X	2
	1	51	21
	1	50	13
	1	34	17
Avarage Now (Initially)	1 ↓ (1.03)	45 ↑ (44)	17 ↑ (10.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-21)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leinster
92.5%

Draw
2.1%

Harlequins
5.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

89%

2.1%

8.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leinster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Harlequins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Leinster - Harlequins Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 41:20

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McCarthy P.	1. Wenger B.
2. Sheehan D.	2. Walker J.
3. Clarkson T.	3. Williams H.
4. Snyman R.	4. Treadwell K.
5. McCarthy J.	5. Lewies S.
6. Conan J.	6. Carr Z.
7. van der Flier J.	7. Evans W.
8. Sweetman-Doris C. (C)	8. Lawday T.
9. Gibson-Park J.	9. Porter W.
10. Prendergast S.	10. Evans J.
11. Larmour J.	11. Murley C. (C)
12. Frawley C.	12. Northmore L.
13. Ringrose G.	13. Beard O.
14. O'Brien T.	14. Cleaves C.
15. O'Brien J.	15. Anderson C.
Substitutes
16. Kelleher R.	16. Turner G.
17. Boyle J.	17. Hobson W.
18. Furlong T.	18. Delgado P.
19. Mangan D.	19. Launchbury J.
20. Deegan M.	20. Schmid L.
21. McGrath L.	21. Friday L.
22. Byrne H.	22. Benson J.
23. Ioane R.	23. Bradley B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (24 - 14)
6', Larmour J. (Try),
12', Northmore L. (Try),
13', Evans J. (Conversion Goal),
17', Ringrose G. (Try),
17', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),
25', Larmour J. (Try),
34', Cleaves C. (Try),
35', Evans J. (Conversion Goal),
40', Frawley C. (Try),
40', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (28 - 7)
50', (Penalty Try),
50', O'Brien J. 🟨,
53', (Conversion Goal),
59', Evans J. 🟨,
61', O'Brien T. (Try),
61', Byrne H. (Conversion Goal),
64', Conan J. (Try),
65', Byrne H. (Conversion Goal),
68', O'Brien J. (Try),
69', Byrne H. (Conversion Goal),
78', (Try),
79', (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Harlequins is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Leinster may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Leinster is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 94:37. (average 31.3:12.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Leinster won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 76:13. (average 38:6.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
28.11.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Leinster	10:24 ✺
25.10.25	Leinster - Zebre	50:26 ✺
18.10.25	Leinster - Munster	14:31 ✺
11.10.25	Leinster - Sharks	31:5 ✺
04.10.25	Blue Bulls - Leinster	39:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WWLWL
- Harlequin FC
English Premiership Rugby
29.11.25	Gloucester - Harlequins	26:15 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
16.11.25	Harlequins - Saracens	21:46 ✺
01.11.25	Northampton Saints - Harlequins	26:17 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
25.10.25	Harlequins - Newcastle Red Bulls	52:14 ✺
19.10.25	Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins	38:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
05.04.25	Leinster - Harlequins	62:0
13.12.14	Leinster - Harlequins	14:13
07.12.14	Harlequins - Leinster	24:18

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