Match Info

Nations Championship - Round 1

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Chichibunomiya Rugby Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Variety 1
Australia	Stan Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Ireland	Virgin Media Player
Italy	SKY Go Italia
New-zealand	Sky Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV4
Slovakia	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand
United-kingdom	ITV 4, ITV X, Virgin TV Go app


	Japan		Italy

	1	X	2
	3.6	19	1.33
				Watch
	3.37	22.6	1.27
				Watch
	3.65	25	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↑ (3.25)	22.2 ↑ (21)	1.3 ↓ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Japan
25.8%

Draw
4.1%

Italy
70.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.2%

4.4%

67.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Japan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Italy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Japan - Italy Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Italy will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 55.5 - under (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:34

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Okabe T.	1. Fischetti D.
2. Harada M.	2. Di Bartolomeo T.
3. Shuhei T.	3. Riccioni M.
4. Hockings H.	4. Cannone N.
5. Dearns W. (C)	5. Zambonin A.
6. Gunter B.	6. Ortombina A.
7. Shimokawa K.	7. Lamaro M. (C)
8. Cornelsen J.	8. Cannone L.
9. Saito N.	9. Varney S.
10. Ito R.	10. Garbisi P.
11. Ishida K.	11. Ioane M.
12. Hirose Y.	12. Menoncello T.
13. Riley D.	13. Brex N.
14. Ueda K.	14. Faissal M.
15. Matsunaga T.	15. Pani L.
Substitutes
16. Hayate E.	16. Lucchesi G.
17. Otsuka S.	17. Spagnolo M.
18. Tamefusa K.	18. Hasa M.
19. Stolberg M.	19. Favretto R.
20. Leitch M.	20. Vintcent R.
21. Costley T.	21. Fusco A.
22. Kamimura I.	22. Marin L.
23. Greene S.	23. Allan T.
Coaches
. Jones E.	. Quesada G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 10)
5', Brex N. (Try),
6', Garbisi P. (Conversion Goal),
11', Dearns W. (Try),
12', Matsunaga T. (Conversion Goal),
13', Pani L. ↓, Allan T. ↑,
17', Matsunaga T. (Try),
17', Matsunaga T. (Conversion Goal),
25', Matsunaga T. (Penalty Goal),
40+4', Garbisi P. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (10 - 0)
47', Gunter B. (Try),
48', Matsunaga T. (Conversion Goal),
48', Di Bartolomeo T. ↓, Lucchesi G. ↑,
48', Ortombina A. ↓, Vintcent R. ↑,
52', Shimokawa K. ↓, Leitch M. ↑,
57', Harada M. ↓, Hayate E. ↑,
57', Shuhei T. ↓, Tamefusa K. ↑,
60', Okabe T. ↓, Otsuka S. ↑,
60', Hockings H. ↓, Stolberg M. ↑,
61', Fischetti D. ↓, Spagnolo M. ↑,
61', Riccioni M. ↓, Hasa M. ↑,
61', Varney S. ↓, Fusco A. ↑,
61', Brex N. ↓, Marin L. ↑,
65', Gunter B. ↓, Costley T. ↑,
67', Matsunaga T. (Penalty Goal),
68', Cannone N. ↓, Favretto R. ↑,
75', Saito N. ↓, Kamimura I. ↑,

Preview

In this match, Italy is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Japan won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 95:124. (average 23.8:31).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Japan rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
22.11.25	Georgia - Japan	23:25 ✺
15.11.25	Wales - Japan	24:23 ✺
08.11.25	Ireland - Japan	41:10 ✺
01.11.25	South Africa - Japan	61:7 ✺
25.10.25	Japan - Australia	15:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLLLL
- Italy rugby
Six Nations
14.03.26	Wales - Italy	31:17 ✺
07.03.26	Italy - England	23:18 ✺
22.02.26	France - Italy	33:8 ✺
14.02.26	Ireland - Italy	20:13 ✺
07.02.26	Italy - Scotland	18:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Rugby Union
21.07.24	Japan - Italy	14:42
26.08.23	Italy - Japan	42:21
09.06.18	Japan - Italy	34:17
21.06.14	Japan - Italy	26:23

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