Match Info

Friendly International

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Principality Stadium (Cardiff)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
Australia	Stan Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Norway	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV6
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, Discovery+, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate


	Wales		Japan

	1	X	2
	1.23	27	4.2	Watch
	1.27	24.48	3.99	Watch
	1.21	26	4.38
	1.15	36	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↑ (1.1)	28.37 ↑ (28)	4.48 ↓ (7.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wales
76.1%

Draw
3.3%

Japan
20.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

83.7%

3.3%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wales has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Wales's form might have worsened.

Japan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Japan's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Wales - Japan Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Wales will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Japan will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Wales (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 47.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Smith N.	1. Kobayashi K.
2. Lake D. (C)	2. Sato K.
3. Griffin A.	3. Tamefusa K.
4. Jenkins D.	4. Uluviti E.
5. Beard A.	5. Dearns W. (C)
6. Wainwright A.	6. Cornelsen J.
7. Mann A.	7. Shimokawa K.
8. Cracknell O.	8. Makisi F.
9. Williams T.	9. Saito N.
10. Edwards D.	10. Seung-Sin L.
11. Adams J.	11. Osada T.
12. Thomas B.	12. Lawrence C.
13. Llewellyn M.	13. Riley D.
14. Rees-Zammit L.	14. Ishida K.
15. Murray B.	15. Yazaki Y.
Substitutes
16. Belcher L.	16. Hirao S.
17. Carre R.	17. Furuhata S.
18. Assiratti K.	18. Shuhei T.
19. Thomas F.	19. Hockings H.
20. Plumtree T.	20. Paul T.
21. Hardy K.	21. Fukuda K.
22. Evans J.	22. Komura S.
23. Tompkins N.	23. Ueda K.
Coaches
. Tandy S.	. Jones E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 7)
6', Edwards D. (Try),
7', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
15', Ishida K. (Try),
16', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
25', Uluviti E. 🟨,
29', Makisi F. 🟨,
40', Adams J. 🟥,
2nd Half (17 - 16)
48', Seung-Sin L. (Penalty Goal),
51', Rees-Zammit L. (Try),
52', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
56', Seung-Sin L. (Penalty Goal),
60', Makisi F. (Try),
61', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
63', Tompkins N. (Try),
64', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
66', Seung-Sin L. (Penalty Goal),
80', Hockings H. 🟨,
80+3', Evans J. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Japan is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Wales may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Wales is the obvious favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wales won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 113:117. (average 22.6:23.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wales rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
09.11.25	Wales - Argentina	28:52 ✺
12.07.25	Japan - Wales	22:31 ✺
05.07.25	Japan - Wales	24:19 ✺
Six Nations
15.03.25	Wales - England	14:61 ✺
08.03.25	Scotland - Wales	35:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LWLLL
- Japan rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
08.11.25	Ireland - Japan	41:10 ✺
01.11.25	South Africa - Japan	61:7 ✺
25.10.25	Japan - Australia	15:19 ✺
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
20.09.25	Japan - Fiji	27:33 ✺
14.09.25	Tonga - Japan	24:62 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Rugby Union
12.07.25	Japan - Wales	22:31
05.07.25	Japan - Wales	24:19
19.11.16	Wales - Japan	33:30
15.06.13	Japan - Wales	23:8
08.06.13	Japan - Wales	18:22

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