Match Info

Friendly International

Date: 12 July 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Noevir Stadium (Kobe) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Japan	14:50	J sports 3
New Zealand	17:50	Sky Sport 6
United Kingdom	06:50	BBC iPlayer, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, S4C
International	05:50	RugbyPass TV


	Japan		Wales

	1	X	2
	2.63	21	1.53
	2.62	21	1.5
	2.85	22	1.44
				Watch
	2.5	21	1.57
	2.72	20	1.51
	2.45	30	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↑ (2.45)	22.5 ↓ (30)	1.52 ↓ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Japan
35.2%

Draw
4.1%

Wales
60.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38%

3.1%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Japan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Wales has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Japan - Wales Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 56.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Wales will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Wales will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:31

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kamimori Y.	1. Smith N.
2. Harada M.	2. Lake D.
3. Tamefusa K.	3. Griffin A.
4. Uluviti E.	4. Thomas F.
5. Dearns W.	5. Williams T.
6. Leitch M.	6. Mann A.
7. Cornelsen J.	7. Macleod J.
8. Makisi F.	8. Wainwright A.
9. Saito N.	9. Hardy K.
10. Seung-Sin L.	10. Edwards D.
11. Vailea H.	11. Adams J.
12. Nakano S.	12. Thomas B.
13. Riley D.	13. Williams J.
14. Ishida K.	14. Rogers T.
15. Ichigo N.	15. Murray B.
Substitutes
16. Hayate E.	16. Belcher L.
17. Kimura S.	17. Thomas G.
18. Shuhei T.	18. Coleman C.
19. Raratubua W.	19. Ratti J.
20. Gunter B.	20. Plumtree T.
21. Fujiwara S.	21. Reffell T.
22. Greene S.	22. Morgan-Williams R.
23. Ueda K.	23. Giles K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 21)
9', Adams J. (Try),
10', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
24', Seung-Sin L. (Penalty Goal),
28', Makisi F. 🟨,
28', Hardy K. (Try),
29', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
36', Hardy K. (Try),
37', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
40', Shuhei T. (Try),
40+1', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 10)
49', Edwards D. (Penalty Goal),
59', Dearns W. (Try),
62', Riley D. (Try),
63', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
75', Edwards D. (Try),
76', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Wales may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Wales will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Japan won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 95:82. (average 23.8:20.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Japan rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
05.07.25	Japan - Wales	24:19 ✺
28.06.25	Japan - Maori All Blacks	20:53 ✺
24.11.24	England - Japan	59:14 ✺
16.11.24	Japan - Uruguay	36:20 ✺
09.11.24	France - Japan	52:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLLWL
- Wales rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
05.07.25	Japan - Wales	24:19 ✺
Six Nations
15.03.25	Wales - England	14:61 ✺
08.03.25	Scotland - Wales	35:29 ✺
22.02.25	Wales - Ireland	18:27 ✺
08.02.25	Italy - Wales	22:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Rugby Union
05.07.25	Japan - Wales	24:19
19.11.16	Wales - Japan	33:30
15.06.13	Japan - Wales	23:8
08.06.13	Japan - Wales	18:22

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