Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 7

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday


	King Country		Whanganui

	1	X	2
	3	29	1.4
	2.97	29	1.4
	2.95	25	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↓ (3.01)	27.67 ↓ (29)	1.38 ↓ (1.4)

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

King Country
30.7%

Draw
3.3%

Whanganui
66%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

3.2%

66.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

3.5%

61.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for King Country have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Whanganui has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for King Country than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Whanganui than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 24)
2nd Half (7 - 5)

Preview

King Country is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Whanganui has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Whanganui is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, King Country won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 34:17.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- King Country Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
19.09.25	Mid Canterbury - King Country	32:17 ✺
13.09.25	King Country - Wairarapa Bush	24:25 ✺
05.09.25	King Country - Horowhenua-Kapiti	36:46 ✺
29.08.25	Thames Valley - King Country	24:20 ✺
22.08.25	King Country - Poverty Bay	47:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLW
- Whanganui Rugby
Heartland Championships
19.09.25	Whanganui - Horowhenua-Kapiti	27:21 ✺
12.09.25	East Coast - Whanganui	19:64 ✺
05.09.25	South Canterbury - Whanganui	35:24 ✺
29.08.25	Whanganui - West Coast	19:38 ✺
22.08.25	Buller - Whanganui	24:51
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
04.10.24	Whanganui - King Country	17:34

King Country - Whanganui: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide