Match Info

Top 14 - Round 21

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Marcel-Deflandre (La Rochelle)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ Sport
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	La Rochelle		Bordeaux Bègles

	1	X	2
	1.17	34	5
	1.16	30	5
	1.2	30.37	5.11	Watch
	1.17	29	5
	1.2	35	4.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.18 ↓ (1.45)	31.67 ↑ (21.35)	4.94 ↑ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Rochelle
78.4%

Draw
2.9%

Bordeaux Bègles
18.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.7%

4.4%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

4.5%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Rochelle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in La Rochelle's performance.

Bordeaux Bègles has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bordeaux Bègles might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Rochelle than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with La Rochelle that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bordeaux Bègles than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bordeaux Bègles could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

La Rochelle - Bordeaux Bègles Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. La Rochelle will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Bordeaux Bègles will win (votes: 11 - 91.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bordeaux Bègles: 76.1% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bordeaux Bègles (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Bordeaux Bègles (4.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +8.5 - Bordeaux Bègles (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Bordeaux Bègles (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 36:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wardi R.	1. Boniface U.
2. Latu S.	2. Barlot G. (C)
3. Feao U.	3. Falatea S.
4. Kante-Samba C.	4. Swinton L.
5. Cancoriet J.	5. Jacobs T.
6. Boudehent P.	6. Gazzotti M.
7. Jegou O.	7. Gardrat R.
8. Alldritt G. (C)	8. Matiu T.
9. Le Garrec N.	9. Retiere A.
10. Hastoy A.	10. Reus H.
11. Leyds D.	11. Rayasi S.
12. Seuteni U.	12. Drault A.
13. Lagivala S.	13. Uberti P.
14. Nowell J.	14. Tambwe M.
15. West I.	15. Mousques X.
Substitutes
16. Lespiaucq-Brettes Q.	16. Sa C.
17. Kaddouri A.	17. Taufa T.
18. Haddad M.	18. Bochaton P.
19. Bourgarit P.	19. Perchaud M.
20. Timo A.	20. Hutteau V.
21. Berjon T.	21. Bohn G.
22. Jurd D.	22. Laharrague J.
23. Kuntelia A.	23. Tameifuna B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (24 - 10)
5', Mousques X. (Try),
5', Reus H. (Conversion Goal),
6', Le Garrec N. (Penalty Goal),
15', Le Garrec N. (Try),
15', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
17', Reus H. (Penalty Goal),
25', Alldritt G. (Try),
25', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
40', Lagivala S. (Try),
40', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (21 - 5)
45', Leyds D. (Try),
45', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
59', Gardrat R. (Try),
66', Berjon T. (Try),
66', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
73', Le Garrec N. (Try),
73', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, La Rochelle won 3.

Recent performances by La Rochelle have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bordeaux Bègles is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

La Rochelle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, La Rochelle has had a series of away games.

In this match, La Rochelle is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, La Rochelle won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 512:332. (average 25.6:16.6).

Including home matches between the teams, La Rochelle won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 294:137. (average 29.4:13.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Bordeaux Begles	6	4	0	2	215:151	19
4	Stade Rochelais	6	4	0	2	144:135	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Rochelle
Challenge Cup Rugby
10.04.26	Ulster - La Rochelle	41:24 ✺
04.04.26	Newcastle Red Bulls - La Rochelle	18:26 ✺
French Top 14
28.03.26	Aviron Bayonnais - La Rochelle	26:15 ✺
21.03.26	La Rochelle - Section Paloise	20:6 ✺
28.02.26	Castres - La Rochelle	26:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWLWW
- Union Bordeaux Bègles
European Rugby Champions Cup
12.04.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulouse	30:15 ✺
05.04.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Leicester Tigers	64:14 ✺
French Top 14
28.03.26	Lyon - Bordeaux Bègles	17:21 ✺
22.03.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulouse	44:20 ✺
01.03.26	Section Paloise - Bordeaux Bègles	39:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
06.09.25	Bordeaux Bègles - La Rochelle	23:18
26.04.25	Bordeaux Bègles - La Rochelle	10:21
20.10.24	La Rochelle - Bordeaux Bègles	32:22
11.05.24	Bordeaux Bègles - La Rochelle	34:14
19.11.23	La Rochelle - Bordeaux Bègles	25:21
10.06.23	La Rochelle - Bordeaux Bègles	24:13
25.03.23	Bordeaux Bègles - La Rochelle	6:36

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