Match Info

Top 14 - Round 20

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Jean-Dauger (Bayonne)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 1


	Aviron Bayonnais		La Rochelle

	1	X	2
	1.62	21	2.38
	1.59	23	2.39
	1.63	23.17	2.44	Watch
	1.62	23	2.38
	1.63	21	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.39)	22.23 ↑ (17.67)	2.4 ↓ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aviron Bayonnais
57.2%

Draw
4.2%

La Rochelle
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.3%

5.2%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aviron Bayonnais has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aviron Bayonnais's form might have worsened.

La Rochelle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting La Rochelle's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Aviron Bayonnais - La Rochelle Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayonne (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 - Bayonne (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Aviron Bayonnais will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayonne (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bordelai A.	1. Wardi R.
2. Bosch F.	2. Sutidze N.
3. Tatafu T.	3. Feao U.
4. Iturria A. (C)	4. Kante-Samba C.
5. Paulos L.	5. Skelton W.
6. Bruni R.	6. Cancoriet J.
7. Chouzenoux B.	7. Botia L.
8. Capilla E.	8. Haddad M.
9. Germain B.	9. Le Garrec N.
10. Spring T.	10. Hastoy A.
11. Carreras M.	11. Leyds D. (C)
12. Tuilagi M.	12. Seguret A.
13. Maqala S.	13. Favre J.
14. Tiberghien C.	14. Nowell J.
15. Orabe Y.	15. Niniashvili D.
Substitutes
16. Martin L.	16. Latu S.
17. Castillon P.	17. Kaddouri A.
18. Ariceta M.	18. Waqanisaravi W.
19. Marchesin R.	19. Lavault T.
20. Tilloles B.	20. Timo A.
21. Erbinartegaray A.	21. Berjon T.
22. Martocq G.	22. Lagivala S.
23. Tagi L.	23. Kuntelia A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 10)
13', Tatafu T. 🟨,
15', Germain B. (Penalty Goal),
20', Leyds D. (Try),
20', Hastoy A. (Conversion Goal),
35', Tiberghien C. 🟨,
36', Hastoy A. (Penalty Goal),
39', Bruni R. 🟥,
40+3', Sutidze N. 🟨,
2nd Half (23 - 5)
45', Spring T. (Penalty Goal),
56', Latu S. 🟨,
57', Martin L. (Try),
57', Germain B. (Conversion Goal),
60', Cancoriet J. (Try),
62', Lagivala S. 🟨,
64', Tiberghien C. (Try),
67', Tiberghien C. (Try),
74', Germain B. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 12 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 2.

Bayonne is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 353:459. (average 19.6:25.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayonne won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 211:168. (average 23.4:18.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Aviron Bayonnais	5	4	0	1	156:169	17
7	Stade Rochelais	5	3	0	2	116:119	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
French Top 14
21.03.26	Montauban - Aviron Bayonnais	26:60 ✺
28.02.26	Clermont - Aviron Bayonnais	38:15 ✺
14.02.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Racing Métro	36:41 ✺
31.01.26	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	31:10 ✺
24.01.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Castres	10:13 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 WLLLL
- La Rochelle
French Top 14
21.03.26	La Rochelle - Section Paloise	20:6 ✺
28.02.26	Castres - La Rochelle	26:31 ✺
14.02.26	La Rochelle - Montpellier	33:43 ✺
31.01.26	La Rochelle - Lyon	24:44 ✺
25.01.26	Clermont - La Rochelle	32:27 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
20.12.25	La Rochelle - Aviron Bayonnais	49:17
19.04.25	La Rochelle - Aviron Bayonnais	29:28
12.10.24	Aviron Bayonnais - La Rochelle	37:7
23.03.24	Aviron Bayonnais - La Rochelle	13:12
11.11.23	La Rochelle - Aviron Bayonnais	18:15
15.04.23	La Rochelle - Aviron Bayonnais	26:6
08.10.22	Aviron Bayonnais - La Rochelle	29:13

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