Match Info

Top 14 - Round 18

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade de Gerland (Lyon)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 3


	Lyon		Toulon

	1	X	2
	1.44	21	2.88
	1.51	24	2.6
	1.55	23.05	2.65	Watch
	1.5	23	2.63
	1.48	30	2.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.73)	24.21 ↑ (18.49)	2.69 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
61.8%

Draw
3.8%

Toulon
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

5.1%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4%

5.4%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lyon's performance.

Toulon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toulon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulon than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lyon - Toulon Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Lyon will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rey J.	1. Priso D.
2. Marchand G.	2. Baubigny T.
3. Ainsley J.	3. Sinckler K.
4. William T.	4. Mezou C.
5. Roux J.	5. Ribbans D. (C)
6. Cretin D.	6. Ludlam L.
7. Botha A.	7. Abadie E.
8. Simmonds S. (C)	8. Shioshvili M.
9. Cassang C.	9. Serin B.
10. Meliande M.	10. Albornoz T.
11. Wainiqolo J.	11. Villiere G.
12. Millet T.	12. Sinzelle J.
13. Parisien A.	13. Smaili M.
14. Dumortier E.	14. Drean G.
15. Lorre G.	15. Domon M.
Substitutes
16. Chat C.	16. Damond P.
17. Moukoro T.	17. Ametlla L.
18. Geraci K.	18. Alainuuese K.
19. Gouzou M.	19. Kpoku J.
20. Berdeu L.	20. Jaminet M.
21. Allen L.	21. Ferte M.
22. Gomes Sa C.	22. Tuicuvu S.
	23. Gigashvili B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
40+1', Domon M. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (13 - 10)
47', Meliande M. (Penalty Goal),
50', Meliande M. (Penalty Goal),
59', Smaili M. (Try),
59', Domon M. (Conversion Goal),
66', Moukoro T. (Try),
66', Domon M. 🟨,
67', Meliande M. (Conversion Goal),
77', Domon M. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Lyon is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Lyon will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 420:517. (average 21:25.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Lyon won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 255:184. (average 28.3:20.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	Lyon	5	3	0	2	177:174	14
13	RC Toulonnais	5	1	0	4	101:115	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lyon OU
French Top 14
14.02.26	Lyon - Montauban	73:12 ✺
31.01.26	La Rochelle - Lyon	24:44 ✺
24.01.26	Racing Métro - Lyon	35:34 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
18.01.26	Lyon - Benetton Treviso	19:38 ✺
10.01.26	Lions - Lyon	42:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWLLL
- RC Toulonnais
French Top 14
14.02.26	Toulon - Clermont	14:34 ✺
01.02.26	Section Paloise - Toulon	32:12 ✺
25.01.26	Toulon - Montpellier	30:27 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Gloucester - Toulon	14:31 ✺
11.01.26	Toulon - Munster	27:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
01.11.25	Toulon - Lyon	54:21
01.03.25	Lyon - Toulon	27:20
02.11.24	Toulon - Lyon	21:10
11.05.24	Toulon - Lyon	30:24
19.08.23	Lyon - Toulon	27:15
Challenge Cup Rugby
08.04.23	Toulon - Lyon	48:23
French Top 14
25.03.23	Lyon - Toulon	23:27

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