Match Info
Rugby Championship - Round 4Date: 13 September 2025, SaturdayLocation: Wellington Regional Stadium (Wellington)Referee: Amashukeli N. (Geo)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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Asia | Premier Sports Rugby Asia |
Australia | Stan Sport |
Brazil | ESPN 2 |
Canada | TSN+ |
France | CANAL+ Sport |
Portugal | Sport TV1 |
Spain | Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1 |
United-kingdom | Sky Sports Main Event |
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New Zealand |
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South Africa |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 48.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)
- The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
New Zealand 26.6% | Draw 7.1% | South Africa 66.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
New Zealand has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-31.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that New Zealand's form might have worsened.South Africa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+28.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting South Africa's recent form is better than expected.New Zealand - South Africa Predictions
Users Predictions:
1 users predict this event. South Africa will win (votes: 1 - 100%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:22 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1. de Groot E.
| 1. Nche O.
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2. Taukei'aho S.
| 2. Marx M.
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3. Lomax T.
| 3. du Toit T.
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4. Barrett S.
| 4. de Jager L.
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5. Vaa'i T.
| 5. Nortje R.
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6. Parker S.
| 6. Kolisi S.
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7. Savea A.
| 7. du Toit P.
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8. Sititi W.
| 8. Wiese J.
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9. Hotham N.
| 9. Reinach C.
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10. Barrett B.
| 10. Feinberg-Mngomezulu S.
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11. Carter L.
| 11. Hooker E.
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12. Barrett J.
| 12. Willemse D.
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13. Proctor B.
| 13. Moodie C.
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14. Jordan W.
| 14. Kolbe C.
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15. McKenzie D.
| 15. Fassi A.
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| Substitutes |
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16. McAlister B.
| 16. van der Merwe M.
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17. Williams T.
| 17. Wessels J.
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18. Newell F.
| 18. Louw W.
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19. Holland F.
| 19. Snyman R.
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20. Kirifi D.
| 20. Smith K.
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21. Christie F.
| 21. Williams G.
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22. Tupaea Q.
| 22. Libbok M.
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23. Love R.
| 23. Esterhuizen A.
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| Coaches |
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. Robertson S.
| . Erasmus J.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (10 - 7)
- 10', Hotham N. ↓, Christie F. ↑,
- 10', de Jager L. ↓, Snyman R. ↑,
- 18', Carter L. (Try),
- 19', McKenzie D. (Conversion Goal),
- 19', Feinberg-Mngomezulu S. ↓, Libbok M. ↑,
- 25', Kolbe C. (Try),
- 26', Libbok M. (Conversion Goal),
- 29', McKenzie D. (Penalty Goal),
- 33', Reinach C. ↓, Williams G. ↑,
- 38', Fassi A. ↓, Esterhuizen A. ↑,
- 40', Williams G. ↓, Reinach C. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 36)
- 42', Nche O. ↓, Wessels J. ↑,
- 42', du Toit T. ↓, Louw W. ↑,
- 43', Kolbe C. (Try),
- 44', Libbok M. (Conversion Goal),
- 44', de Groot E. ↓, Williams T. ↑,
- 44', Lomax T. ↓, Newell F. ↑,
- 47', Libbok M. (Penalty Goal),
- 47', Kolbe C. ↓, Williams G. ↑,
- 55', Taukei'aho S. ↓, McAlister B. ↑,
- 59', Kolisi S. ↓, Smith K. ↑,
- 61', Proctor B. ↓, Tupaea Q. ↑,
- 61', Willemse D. (Try),
- 62', Libbok M. (Conversion Goal),
- 62', Marx M. ↓, van der Merwe M. ↑,
- 63', Parker S. ↓, Holland F. ↑,
- 66', Sititi W. ↓, Kirifi D. ↑,
- 66', Carter L. ↓, Love R. ↑,
- 69', Smith K. (Try),
- 73', Snyman R. (Try),
- 74', Libbok M. (Conversion Goal),
- 79', Esterhuizen A. (Try),
- 80', Libbok M. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 and 4).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, New Zealand won 1.New Zealand is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).In recent matches, South Africa has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3). New Zealand will hold a modest advantage in this match.We predict that New Zealand will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, New Zealand won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 541:415. (average 27.1:20.8).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;