Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 17

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Newport Gwent Dragons		Edinburgh

	1	X	2
	2.2	21	1.73
	2.07	23	1.78
	2.06	20.13	1.85	Watch
	2.05	23	1.8
	2.1	20	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.6)	21.43 ↑ (21.13)	1.79 ↑ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport Gwent Dragons
44.1%

Draw
4.3%

Edinburgh
51.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

4.4%

60.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

4.1%

56.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport Gwent Dragons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newport Gwent Dragons's performance.

Edinburgh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Edinburgh might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport Gwent Dragons than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newport Gwent Dragons that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Edinburgh than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Newport Gwent Dragons - Edinburgh Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Dragons will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Edinburgh will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:27

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 14)
2nd Half (5 - 10)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Edinburgh may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Dragons has had a series of away games.

Edinburgh could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 314:512. (average 15.7:25.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Dragons won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 165:169. (average 18.3:18.8).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Edinburgh: 1.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
4	Edinburgh	2	2	0	0	51:42	9
6	Dragons	2	1	1	0	57:45	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport Gwent Dragons
Challenge Cup Rugby
03.05.26	Montpellier - Newport Gwent Dragons	18:12 ✺
United Rugby Championship
24.04.26	Zebre - Newport Gwent Dragons	18:19 ✺
17.04.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Blue Bulls	7:47 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.04.26	Zebre - Newport Gwent Dragons	32:35 ✺
05.04.26	Stade Français - Newport Gwent Dragons	31:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.3 LWLWW
- Edinburgh Rugby
United Rugby Championship
24.04.26	Edinburgh - Sharks	33:28 ✺
17.04.26	Edinburgh - Zebre	31:30 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
05.04.26	Leinster - Edinburgh	49:31 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Stormers - Edinburgh	33:14 ✺
21.03.26	Lions - Edinburgh	54:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
28.03.25	Edinburgh - Newport Gwent Dragons	38:5
21.10.23	Newport Gwent Dragons - Edinburgh	17:22
17.09.22	Edinburgh - Newport Gwent Dragons	44:6
27.11.21	Newport Gwent Dragons - Edinburgh	14:30
28.03.21	Newport Gwent Dragons - Edinburgh	24:17
08.11.19	Edinburgh - Newport Gwent Dragons	20:7
15.02.19	Edinburgh - Newport Gwent Dragons	34:17

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