Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 17

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Swansea.com Stadium (Swansea)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, URC


	Ospreys		Llanelli Scarlets

	1	X	2
	1.4	21	3
	1.41	22	2.95
	1.48	20.26	2.87	Watch
	1.5	19	2.75
	1.42	21	3.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.46)	20.65 ↑ (20.25)	2.92 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 48.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ospreys
64%

Draw
4.5%

Llanelli Scarlets
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.8%

4.5%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

4.7%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Llanelli Scarlets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llanelli Scarlets than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:21

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 5)
2nd Half (10 - 15)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 4.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Ospreys may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ospreys has had a series of away games.

Ospreys is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 433:412. (average 21.7:20.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ospreys won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 269:161. (average 26.9:16.1).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Scarlets: 0.63% Ospreys: 0.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
14	Scarlets	2	0	0	2	41:59	2
15	Ospreys	2	0	0	2	43:76	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
24.04.26	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	24:21 ✺
18.04.26	Ospreys - Sharks	21:17 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
04.04.26	Ulster - Ospreys	28:24 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Connacht - Ospreys	21:14 ✺
21.03.26	Benetton Treviso - Ospreys	31:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLL
- Llanelli Scarlets
United Rugby Championship
25.04.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Blue Bulls	21:23 ✺
18.04.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby	24:28 ✺
27.03.26	Leinster - Llanelli Scarlets	36:19 ✺
20.03.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Zebre	36:17 ✺
13.03.26	Connacht - Llanelli Scarlets	31:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
26.12.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Ospreys	19:26
Challenge Cup Rugby
06.04.25	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	36:14
United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Ospreys	38:22
21.12.24	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	23:22
26.12.23	Llanelli Scarlets - Ospreys	11:25
26.11.23	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	31:9
26.12.22	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	34:14

Upcoming Matches