Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 18

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Parc y Scarlets (Llanelli)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player, S4C Clic, S4C Digital


	Llanelli Scarlets		Newport Gwent Dragons

	1	X	2
	1.44	23	2.88
	1.42	24	2.9
	1.4	23	2.9
	1.41	20	3.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.33)	22.5 ↑ (21.75)	2.93 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llanelli Scarlets
64.6%

Draw
4.1%

Newport Gwent Dragons
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69%

4.2%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.9%

4.6%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llanelli Scarlets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Newport Gwent Dragons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llanelli Scarlets than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Llanelli Scarlets, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport Gwent Dragons than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newport Gwent Dragons, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:21

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 22)
2nd Half (21 - 13)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Scarlets won 3.

Scarlets has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Dragons has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Scarlets may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Scarlets is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Scarlets won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 541:430. (average 27.1:21.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Scarlets won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 244:141. (average 30.5:17.6).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Scarlets: 0.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	Dragons	2	1	1	0	57:45	7
14	Scarlets	2	0	0	2	41:59	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llanelli Scarlets
United Rugby Championship
09.05.26	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	27:20 ✺
25.04.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Blue Bulls	21:23 ✺
18.04.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby	24:28 ✺
27.03.26	Leinster - Llanelli Scarlets	36:19 ✺
20.03.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Zebre	36:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLW
- Newport Gwent Dragons
United Rugby Championship
09.05.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Edinburgh	15:24 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
03.05.26	Montpellier - Newport Gwent Dragons	18:12 ✺
United Rugby Championship
24.04.26	Zebre - Newport Gwent Dragons	18:19 ✺
17.04.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Blue Bulls	7:47 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.04.26	Zebre - Newport Gwent Dragons	32:35 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	28:5
19.04.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	23:31
01.01.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons	32:15
01.06.24	Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons	32:15
01.01.24	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	13:12
22.04.23	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	31:14
01.01.23	Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons	33:17

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