Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 1

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Parc y Scarlets (Llanelli)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, URC


	Llanelli Scarlets		Cardiff Rugby

	1	X	2
	2.38	19	1.62
	2.38	21	1.61
	2.38	20.1	1.64	Watch
	2.3	20	1.58
	2.4	18	1.64
	2.38	21	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (1.84)	19.85 ↓ (19.92)	1.62 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 48.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llanelli Scarlets
38.7%

Draw
4.6%

Cardiff Rugby
56.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.3%

4.6%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llanelli Scarlets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Llanelli Scarlets's form might have worsened.

Cardiff Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cardiff Rugby's recent form is better than expected.

Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:26

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 14)
2nd Half (3 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Scarlets won 3.

Scarlets could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Scarlets has recorded 12 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 454:418 (averaging 22.7:20.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Scarlets against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 235:228 goals (averaging 21.4:20.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	Cardiff Rugby	3	2	0	1	66:71	9
12	Scarlets	3	1	0	2	68:85	7

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Cardiff Rugby: 0.81% Scarlets: 0.42%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llanelli Scarlets
United Rugby Championship
16.05.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons	35:35 ✺
09.05.26	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	27:20 ✺
25.04.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Blue Bulls	21:23 ✺
18.04.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby	24:28 ✺
27.03.26	Leinster - Llanelli Scarlets	36:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL
- Cardiff Rugby
Club Friendly Rugby Union
19.09.26	Cardiff Rugby - Exeter Chiefs	28:33 ✺
United Rugby Championship
30.05.26	Stormers - Cardiff Rugby	44:21 ✺
15.05.26	Cardiff Rugby - Stormers	22:16 ✺
08.05.26	Glasgow Warriors - Cardiff Rugby	40:17 ✺
24.04.26	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	24:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
18.04.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby	24:28
19.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Llanelli Scarlets	17:21
12.10.24	Cardiff Rugby - Llanelli Scarlets	19:25
28.09.24	Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby	15:24
02.12.23	Cardiff Rugby - Llanelli Scarlets	23:29
04.11.23	Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby	31:25
07.01.23	Cardiff Rugby - Llanelli Scarlets	22:28

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