Match Info

Premiership Rugby Cup - Round 10

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Franklin's Gardens (Northampton)


	Northampton Saints		Saracens

	1	X	2
	1.41	23	2.95
	1.44	22.93	2.97	Watch
	1.4	23	2.88
	1.41	20	3.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.36)	22.23 ↓ (22.64)	2.98 ↓ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 62.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Saints
65%

Draw
4.1%

Saracens
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.4%

4.1%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.5%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Saracens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Saints than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Northampton Saints, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saracens than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Northampton Saints - Saracens Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 35:28

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 14)
2nd Half (21 - 19)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Northampton Saints won 4.

Northampton Saints is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Saracens has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Northampton Saints is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Northampton Saints will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Northampton Saints won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 608:632. (average 30.4:31.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Northampton Saints won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 335:326. (average 30.5:29.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Saints
English Premiership Rugby Cup
20.02.26	Newcastle Red Bulls - Northampton Saints	21:49 ✺
13.02.26	Harlequins - Northampton Saints	24:40 ✺
31.01.26	Northampton Saints - Leicester Tigers	40:22 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
24.01.26	Sale Sharks - Northampton Saints	29:43 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
18.01.26	Northampton Saints - Llanelli Scarlets	43:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWWWW
- Saracens FC
English Premiership Rugby Cup
14.02.26	Saracens - Leicester Tigers	26:31 ✺
07.02.26	Saracens - Harlequins	40:43 ✺
30.01.26	Newcastle Red Bulls - Saracens	12:35 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
24.01.26	Saracens - Newcastle Red Bulls	73:14 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
18.01.26	Glasgow Warriors - Saracens	28:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English Premiership Rugby
24.10.25	Northampton Saints - Saracens	43:31
English Premiership Rugby Cup
19.09.25	Saracens - Northampton Saints	34:49
English Premiership Rugby
17.05.25	Northampton Saints - Saracens	28:24
22.12.24	Saracens - Northampton Saints	39:24
31.05.24	Northampton Saints - Saracens	22:20
29.03.24	Northampton Saints - Saracens	41:30
02.12.23	Saracens - Northampton Saints	12:18

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