Match Info

Top 14 - Round 10

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Aimé Giral (Perpignan)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 4
United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Perpignan		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	3.5	21	1.33
	3.1	23	1.39
	2.22	16.52	1.81	Watch
	3.53	29	1.31
	3	23	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (2.22)	22.5 ↑ (16.52)	1.45 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perpignan
30.8%

Draw
4.2%

Montpellier
65%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

5.7%

52%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perpignan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Perpignan's form might have worsened.

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montpellier's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perpignan than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Perpignan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-15.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montpellier, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Perpignan - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: Montpellier will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Montpellier will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 20:28

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Beria G.	1. Forletta E.
2. Montgaillard V.	2. Tolofua C.
3. Ceccarelli P.	3. Hounkpatin W.
4. Chinarro B.	4. Chalureau B.
5. Tuilagi P.	5. Duguid T.
6. Hicks M.	6. Camara Y.
7. Van Tonder J.	7. Nouchi L.
8. Le Corvec M.	8. Vunipola V.
9. Ecochard T.	9. Coly L.
10. Urdapilleta B.	10. Miotti H.
11. Granell M.	11. Moustin M.
12. De La Fuente J.	12. Anyanwu L.
13. Buliruarua E.	13. Cadot A.
14. Veredamu T.	14. Ngandebe G.
15. Dubois L.	15. Banks T.
Substitutes
16. Lotrian M.	16. Riccitelli R.
17. Devaux B.	17. Erdocio B.
18. Tanguy M.	18. Tauleigne M.
19. Dvali A.	19. Becognee A.
20. Hall J.	20. Price A.
21. Kretchmann G.	21. Hogg S.
22. Poulet J.	22. Vincent A.
23. Brookes K.	23. Haouas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 13)
16', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
32', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
36', Tolofua C. (Try),
36', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (0 - 15)
47', Hounkpatin W. (Try),
69', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
75', Becognee A. (Try),
75', Hogg S. (Conversion Goal),
75', Dubois L. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation ~ Pro D2 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Perpignan won 2.

Perpignan has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Montpellier's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Montpellier might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Perpignan won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 266:363. (average 17.7:24.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Perpignan won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 143:146. (average 20.4:20.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USA Perpignan
French Top 14
01.11.25	Section Paloise - Perpignan	27:23 ✺
25.10.25	Montauban - Perpignan	29:22 ✺
18.10.25	Perpignan - Bordeaux Bègles	12:27 ✺
11.10.25	Lyon - Perpignan	44:19 ✺
04.10.25	Perpignan - Stade Français	11:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Montpellier Hérault RC
French Top 14
01.11.25	Montpellier - Clermont	7:9 ✺
25.10.25	Stade Français - Montpellier	35:12 ✺
18.10.25	Montpellier - Lyon	35:13 ✺
11.10.25	Racing Métro - Montpellier	32:25 ✺
04.10.25	Montpellier - La Rochelle	37:13 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
26.04.25	Montpellier - Perpignan	19:13
14.09.24	Perpignan - Montpellier	7:26
27.04.24	Montpellier - Perpignan	20:25
18.11.23	Perpignan - Montpellier	23:16
25.03.23	Perpignan - Montpellier	22:23
23.12.22	Montpellier - Perpignan	38:10
02.04.22	Perpignan - Montpellier	13:23

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