Match Info

Friendly International

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Murrayfield (Edinburgh)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Australia	Stan Sport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Norway	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV6
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Discovery+, TNT Sports 1


	Scotland		Tonga

	1	X	2
	1	30	16	Watch
	1.00	23.35	26.14	Watch
	1	50	50
	1	45	45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1 (1)	37.09 ↓ (80)	34.29 ↓ (41)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-39)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Scotland
94.7%

Draw
2.6%

Tonga
2.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

96.4%

1.2%

2.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Scotland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Tonga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Scotland - Tonga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 50:11

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sutherland R.	1. Fisiihoi S.
2. Turner G.	2. Maile S.
3. Fagerson M.	3. Tameifuna B.
4. Samuel A.	4. Mataele H.
5. Williamson M.	5. Poloniati V.
6. Christie A.	6. Paea S.
7. Ritchie J.	7. Moala S.
8. Bradbury M.	8. Inisi L.
9. White B.	9. Takulua S.
10. Burke F.	10. Pellegrini P.
11. van der Merwe D.	11. Tapueluelu J.
12. Tuipulotu S.	12. Kata S.
13. Smith O.	13. Inisi F.
14. Rowe K.	14. Filimone T.
15. Jordan T.	15. Havili W.
Substitutes
16. Ashman E.	16. Moli S.
17. McBeth N.	17. Paea F.
18. Hurd W.	18. Kite P.
19. Sykes M.	19. Timani S.
20. Bayliss J.	20. Lokotui F.
21. Horne G.	21. Halo A.
22. McDowall S.	22. Faingaanuku T.
23. Steyn K.	23. Tuitavuki A.
Coaches
. Townsend G.	. Tuifua T. H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (21 - 0)
5', Paea S. 🟥,
11', Ritchie J. (Try),
11', Burke F. (Conversion Goal),
14', Turner G. (Try),
15', Turner G. (Conversion Goal),
25', Williamson M. (Try),
25', Burke F. (Conversion Goal),
40+1', Poloniati V. 🟨,
2nd Half (35 - 0)
50', Filimone T. 🟨,
60', van der Merwe D. (Try),
60', Burke F. (Conversion Goal),
61', Inisi F. 🟨,
67', Ashman E. (Try),
67', Burke F. (Conversion Goal),
70', Horne G. (Try),
70', Horne G. (Conversion Goal),
76', Horne G. (Try),
76', Horne G. (Conversion Goal),
79', Ashman E. (Try),
80', Horne G. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Scotland may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Scotland is the clear favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Scotland won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 157:64. (average 39.3:16).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Scotland rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
16.11.25	Scotland - Argentina	24:33 ✺
08.11.25	Scotland - New Zealand	17:25 ✺
01.11.25	Scotland - USA	85:0 ✺
18.07.25	Samoa - Scotland	12:41 ✺
11.07.25	Fiji - Scotland	29:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLWWL
- Tonga rugby
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
20.09.25	Tonga - Canada	35:24 ✺
14.09.25	Tonga - Japan	24:62 ✺
29.08.25	Fiji - Tonga	32:10 ✺
22.08.25	Tonga - Samoa	30:16 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
24.11.24	Georgia - Tonga	22:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Rugby World Cup
24.09.23	Scotland - Tonga	45:17
Friendly International Rugby Union
30.10.21	Scotland - Tonga	60:14
22.11.14	Scotland - Tonga	37:12
24.11.12	Scotland - Tonga	15:21

Scotland - Tonga: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide