Match Info

Top 14 - Round 4

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade du Hameau (Pau)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 4
United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Section Paloise		Lyon

	1	X	2
	1.33	23	3.4
	1.32	24	3.45
	1.34	20	3.43
	1.34	26	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↑ (1.23)	23.25 ↑ (19)	3.46 ↓ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Section Paloise
69.3%

Draw
4%

Lyon
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

74.4%

4.8%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Section Paloise has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Section Paloise's form might have worsened.

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lyon's recent form is better than expected.

Section Paloise - Lyon Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaulashvili L.	1. Rey J.
2. Delhommel Y.	2. Sarragallet M.
3. Papidze G.	3. Aptsiauri I.
4. Auradou H.	4. Lambey F. (C)
5. Maximin J.	5. Roux J.
6. Whitelock L. (C)	6. William T.
7. Hewat R.	7. Saghinadze B.
8. Gorgadze B.	8. Guillard M.
9. Daubagna T.	9. Couilloud B.
10. Desperes A.	10. Berdeu L.
11. Grandidier A.	11. Rattez V.
12. Brau-Boirie F.	12. Regard T.
13. Gailleton E.	13. Parisien A.
14. Arfeuil G.	14. Dumortier E.
15. Maddocks J.	15. Lorre G.
Substitutes
16. Rey L.	16. Marceline T.
17. Biziwu D.	17. Kaabeche H.
18. Capelli M.	18. Shvangiradze B.
19. Credoz L.	19. Gouzou M.
20. Isa F.	20. Cassang C.
21. Souverbie T.	21. Meliande M.
22. Simmonds J.	22. Masi I.
23. Laclayat T.	23. Ainsley J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (20 - 9)
3', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
7', Berdeu L. (Penalty Goal),
13', Berdeu L. (Penalty Goal),
19', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
29', Hewat R. (Try),
30', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
34', Berdeu L. (Penalty Goal),
38', Desperes A. (Try),
38', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (20 - 6)
43', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
50', Berdeu L. (Penalty Goal),
57', Simmonds J. (Penalty Goal),
60', Berdeu L. (Penalty Goal),
60', Brau-Boirie F. (Try),
61', Simmonds J. (Conversion Goal),
76', Rey L. (Try),
80+2', (Conversion Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Section Paloise won 3.

In this match, Section Paloise is considered a favorite.

We predict that Section Paloise will win today's game, with odds of 1.31.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Section Paloise won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 442:495. (average 22.1:24.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Section Paloise won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 242:170. (average 26.9:18.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Section Paloise
French Top 14
20.09.25	Clermont - Section Paloise	50:27 ✺
13.09.25	Section Paloise - Stade Français	34:10 ✺
06.09.25	Castres - Section Paloise	15:17 ✺
07.06.25	Section Paloise - La Rochelle	32:18 ✺
31.05.25	Vannes - Section Paloise	26:52 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LWWWW
- Lyon OU
French Top 14
20.09.25	Lyon - Stade Français	42:37 ✺
13.09.25	Montauban - Lyon	18:25 ✺
06.09.25	Lyon - Racing Métro	32:7 ✺
07.06.25	Lyon - Racing Métro	34:47 ✺
01.06.25	Toulouse - Lyon	43:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
10.05.25	Lyon - Section Paloise	27:29
30.11.24	Section Paloise - Lyon	29:15
27.04.24	Lyon - Section Paloise	38:20
02.09.23	Section Paloise - Lyon	40:10
07.01.23	Section Paloise - Lyon	12:21
22.10.22	Lyon - Section Paloise	31:27
08.01.22	Lyon - Section Paloise	35:10

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