Match Info

Friendly International

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore, MD)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Australia	Stan Sport
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 4
France	CANAL+ Sport
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 3, Ziggo Sport
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 4
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand
Spain	Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	South Africa		New Zealand

	1	X	2
	1.44	15.5	2.9
	1.44	20	2.85
	1.44	19	2.75	Watch
	1.45	40	2.8
				Watch
	1.45	21	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.67)	23.1 ↑ (20)	2.84 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Africa
63.7%

Draw
4%

New Zealand
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

4.6%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

4.4%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Africa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in South Africa's performance.

New Zealand has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and New Zealand might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Africa than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with South Africa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New Zealand than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that New Zealand could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

South Africa - New Zealand Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. South Africa will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nche O.	1. de Groot E.
2. Marx M.	2. Taylor C.
3. Louw W.	3. Newell F.
4. Etzebeth E.	4. Darry S.
5. Nortje R.	5. Tuipulotu P.
6. Kolisi S.	6. Vaa'i T.
7. du Toit P.	7. Blackadder E.
8. Wiese J.	8. Lakai P.
9. van den Berg M.	9. Roigard C.
10. Feinberg-Mngomezulu S.	10. Mo'unga R.
11. Hooker E.	11. Moorby J.
12. de Allende D.	12. Barrett J.
13. Kriel J.	13. Lienert-Brown A.
14. Arendse K.	14. Jordan W.
15. Willemse D.	15. McKenzie D.
Substitutes
16. Fourie D.	16. Aumua A.
17. Steenekamp G.	17. Numia X.
18. du Toit T.	18. Lomax T.
19. de Jager L.	19. Lord J.
20. Esterhuizen A.	20. Sititi W.
21. Hanekom C.	21. Preston K.
22. Reinach C.	22. Ioane R.
23. Libbok M.	23. Barrett B.
Coaches
. Erasmus J.	. Rennie D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 14)
3', Feinberg-Mngomezulu S. (Penalty Goal),
7', Taylor C. (Try),
8', McKenzie D. (Conversion Goal),
14', de Allende D. (Try),
15', Feinberg-Mngomezulu S. (Conversion Goal),
21', van den Berg M. (Try),
22', Feinberg-Mngomezulu S. (Conversion Goal),
36', Jordan W. (Try),
37', McKenzie D. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (26 - 14)
48', de Allende D. (Try),
51', du Toit P. (Try),
52', van den Berg M. (Conversion Goal),
62', Blackadder E. (Try),
63', McKenzie D. (Conversion Goal),
71', Arendse K. (Try),
72', Libbok M. (Conversion Goal),
75', Hanekom C. (Try),
76', Libbok M. (Conversion Goal),
79', Barrett B. (Try),
79', McKenzie D. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, South Africa won 3.

South Africa is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, New Zealand has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

South Africa might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that South Africa will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, South Africa won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 470:489. (average 23.5:24.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Africa rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
05.09.26	South Africa - New Zealand	29:24 ✺
29.08.26	South Africa - New Zealand	33:26 ✺
22.08.26	South Africa - New Zealand	16:33 ✺
08.08.26	Argentina - South Africa	10:17 ✺
Nations Championship Rugby
18.07.26	South Africa - Wales	43:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWW
- New Zealand rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
05.09.26	South Africa - New Zealand	29:24 ✺
29.08.26	South Africa - New Zealand	33:26 ✺
25.08.26	Lions - New Zealand	35:41 ✺
22.08.26	South Africa - New Zealand	16:33 ✺
15.08.26	Blue Bulls - New Zealand	19:50 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Rugby Union
05.09.26	South Africa - New Zealand	29:24
29.08.26	South Africa - New Zealand	33:26
22.08.26	South Africa - New Zealand	16:33
Rugby Championship
13.09.25	New Zealand - South Africa	10:43
06.09.25	New Zealand - South Africa	24:17
07.09.24	South Africa - New Zealand	18:12
31.08.24	South Africa - New Zealand	31:27

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