Match Info

Friendly International

Date: 25 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: Ellis Park Stadium (Johannesburg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Australia	Stan Sport
Europe	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic
France	CANAL+ Sport
Japan	J sports 1
Mexico	Disney+
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Portugal	Sport TV3
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	Sky Go, Sky Sports Action
World	RugbyPass TV


	Lions		New Zealand

	1	X	2
	26	51	1
	15	40	1
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	20.5 ↓ (21)	45.5 ↓ (51)	1 (1)

The most likely Over/Under: 71.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-38)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lions
4.6%

Draw
2.1%

New Zealand
93.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

4.5%

1.8%

93.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

New Zealand has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Lions - New Zealand Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 17:55

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
. Mpeku K.	1. Lauaki S.
4. Oosthuizen E.	2. Taukei'aho S.
5. Delport R.	3. Tosi P.
7. Hlekani B.	4. Darry S.
8. Horn F.	5. Tuipulotu P.
10. Smith C.	6. Sititi W.
12. van Wyk H.	7. Blackadder E.
13. Cronje E.	8. Tupou S.
14. Kriel R.	9. Hotham N.
15. Horn Q.	10. Mo'unga R.
16. Botha P.	11. Narawa E.
17. Kotze S.	12. Tavatavanawai T.
18. Lombard S.	13. Ioane R.
21. Mahashe S.	14. Fineanganofo F.
22. Steyn N.	15. Barrett B.
Substitutes
. Notshe S.	16. Slater B.
. Venter R.	17. Tu'ungafasi O.
2. Brandon M.	18. Ma'u S.
3. Schoeman R.	19. Hannah J.
6. Pretorius J.	20. Lakai P.
9. Pead H.	21. Preston K.
19. Andrews H.	22. Jacomb J.
23. Chamberlain B.	23. Lienert-Brown A.
Coaches
. van Rooyen I.	. Rennie D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (21 - 17)
5', Steyn N. (Try),
6', Smith C. (Conversion Goal),
7', Mahashe S. (Try),
8', Smith C. (Conversion Goal),
10', Hotham N. (Try),
11', Barrett B. (Conversion Goal),
24', Narawa E. (Try),
32', Mpeku K. (Try),
33', Smith C. (Conversion Goal),
35', Blackadder E. (Try),
2nd Half (14 - 24)
41', Cronje E. (Try),
42', Smith C. (Conversion Goal),
47', Horn F. (Try),
48', Smith C. (Conversion Goal),
50', Ioane R. (Try),
51', Mo'unga R. (Conversion Goal),
55', Ioane R. (Try),
56', Mo'unga R. (Conversion Goal),
62', Blackadder E. (Try),
79', Narawa E. (Try),

Preview

Lions has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

New Zealand is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Lions may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, New Zealand has had a series of away games.

In this match, New Zealand is the clear favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lions Rugby
Currie Cup
21.08.26	Sharks - Lions	22:17 ✺
14.08.26	Lions - Boland Cavaliers	29:38 ✺
08.08.26	Griquas - Lions	31:19 ✺
01.08.26	Lions - Blue Bulls	42:19 ✺
25.07.26	Lions - Pumas	52:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLLWW
- New Zealand rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
22.08.26	South Africa - New Zealand	16:33 ✺
15.08.26	Blue Bulls - New Zealand	19:50 ✺
11.08.26	Sharks - New Zealand	0:54 ✺
07.08.26	Stormers - New Zealand	21:38 ✺
Nations Championship Rugby
18.07.26	New Zealand - Ireland	40:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWWW

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