Match Info

Pro D2 - Round 11

Date: 14 November 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 2


	Stade Aurillacois		Provence Rugby

	1	X	2
	1.67	21	2.3
	1.69	20	2.24
				Watch
	1.64	15	2.39
	1.81	19	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.72)	18.75 ↓ (27)	2.26 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 44.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stade Aurillacois
54.2%

Draw
4.9%

Provence Rugby
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

3.4%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

3.4%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stade Aurillacois has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Provence Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stade Aurillacois than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Provence Rugby than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Stade Aurillacois - Provence Rugby Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:21

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (21 - 7)
2nd Half (10 - 25)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stade Aurillacois won 1.

Stade Aurillacois has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Provence Rugby is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Stade Aurillacois won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 395:376. (average 23.2:22.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Stade Aurillacois won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 236:104. (average 29.5:13).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Aurillacois
French Pro D2
07.11.25	Valence Romans Drôme - Stade Aurillacois	53:22 ✺
31.10.25	Stade Aurillacois - Oyonnax Rugby	22:20 ✺
24.10.25	Nevers - Stade Aurillacois	62:28 ✺
17.10.25	Stade Aurillacois - US Dax	36:33 ✺
03.10.25	Biarritz - Stade Aurillacois	13:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LWLWW
- Provence Rugby
French Pro D2
07.11.25	Colomiers - Provence Rugby	10:12 ✺
31.10.25	Provence Rugby - Brive	25:3 ✺
24.10.25	Oyonnax Rugby - Provence Rugby	30:25 ✺
17.10.25	Provence Rugby - Nevers	39:33 ✺
03.10.25	FC Grenoble - Provence Rugby	23:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
24.01.25	Stade Aurillacois - Provence Rugby	26:17
08.11.24	Provence Rugby - Stade Aurillacois	39:20
29.03.24	Stade Aurillacois - Provence Rugby	20:24
10.11.23	Provence Rugby - Stade Aurillacois	19:19
28.04.23	Provence Rugby - Stade Aurillacois	33:14
02.09.22	Stade Aurillacois - Provence Rugby	22:13
10.03.22	Provence Rugby - Stade Aurillacois	20:16

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