Match Info

Pro D2 - Promotion - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Disney+
France	CANAL+ France


	Provence Rugby		Brive

	1	X	2
	1.4	21	3.1
	1.39	22	3.05
	1.43	20.55	3.04	Watch
	1.37	17	3.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.41)	20.14 ↑ (19.67)	3.13 ↑ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Provence Rugby
66%

Draw
4.6%

Brive
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.4%

4.7%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

4.7%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Provence Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Brive has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Provence Rugby than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brive than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Provence Rugby - Brive Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Provence will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:22

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (21 - 7)
17', Tuivuaka A. (Try),
17', Shillcock J. (Conversion Goal),
20', Muntz C. (Try),
20', Vareiro M. (Conversion Goal),
23', Latterrade R. (Try),
23', Vareiro M. (Conversion Goal),
34', Lapegue A. (Try),
34', Vareiro M. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (18 - 14)
42', Lapegue A. (Try),
59', Drouet L. (Try),
60', Vareiro M. (Conversion Goal),
68', Gue S. (Try),
69', Shillcock J. (Conversion Goal),
73', Pimienta P. (Try),
73', Shillcock J. (Conversion Goal),
76', Vareiro M. (Penalty Goal),
79', Vareiro M. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Provence Rugby won 3.

Provence Rugby has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Brive has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Provence Rugby is considered a favorite.

We predict that Provence Rugby will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Provence Rugby won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 183:260. (average 18.3:26).

Including home matches between the teams, Provence Rugby won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 125:97. (average 25:19.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	CA Brive	5	5	0	0	168:106	21
3	Provence Rugby	5	5	0	0	160:108	21

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Provence Rugby
French Pro D2
15.05.26	Valence Romans Drôme - Provence Rugby	21:34 ✺
07.05.26	Provence Rugby - Vannes	34:31 ✺
24.04.26	Provence Rugby - SA XV Charente	51:20 ✺
17.04.26	Béziers - Provence Rugby	30:31 ✺
10.04.26	Provence Rugby - Mont-De-Marsan	42:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWWW
- CA Brive
French Pro D2
15.05.26	Brive - Nevers	31:29 ✺
08.05.26	Carcassonne - Brive	28:44 ✺
23.04.26	Valence Romans Drôme - Brive	33:27 ✺
17.04.26	Brive - Stade Aurillacois	75:9 ✺
11.04.26	Oyonnax Rugby - Brive	26:11 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
03.04.26	Brive - Provence Rugby	53:13
31.10.25	Provence Rugby - Brive	25:3
18.04.25	Brive - Provence Rugby	24:17
17.10.24	Provence Rugby - Brive	23:20
26.01.24	Provence Rugby - Brive	30:24
07.09.23	Brive - Provence Rugby	17:6
15.03.19	Brive - Provence Rugby	45:14

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