Match Info

League One - Round 6

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Tokyo Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Toshiba Brave Lupus		Kubota Spears

	1	X	2
	1.8	25	2.02
	1.84	22.06	2.05
	1.83	23	2
				Watch
	1.73	23	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.73)	23.27 ↑ (22.97)	2.04 ↓ (2.15)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toshiba Brave Lupus
51.1%

Draw
4%

Kubota Spears
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toshiba Brave Lupus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Kubota Spears has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toshiba Brave Lupus than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kubota Spears than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 3)
2nd Half (12 - 17)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toshiba Brave Lupus won 4.

Toshiba Brave Lupus is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Kubota is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Toshiba Brave Lupus won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 234:279. (average 23.4:27.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Toshiba Brave Lupus won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 147:191. (average 21:27.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toshiba Brave Lupus
Japan League One Rugby Union
17.01.26	Urayasu D-Rocks - Toshiba Brave Lupus	27:38 ✺
10.01.26	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Mitsubishi Sagamihara DynaBoars	47:22 ✺
28.12.25	Canon Eagles - Toshiba Brave Lupus	19:41 ✺
21.12.25	Shizuoka Blue Revs - Toshiba Brave Lupus	22:26 ✺
14.12.25	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Panasonic Wild Knights	0:46 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWWL
- Kubota Spears
Japan League One Rugby Union
17.01.26	Kubota Spears - Toyota Verblitz	39:10 ✺
10.01.26	Honda Heat - Kubota Spears	21:45 ✺
27.12.25	Kubota Spears - Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath	79:20 ✺
20.12.25	Kubota Spears - Ricoh Black Rams	50:28 ✺
13.12.25	Kobe Steel Kobelco Steelers - Kubota Spears	28:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan League One Rugby Union
01.06.25	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Kubota Spears	18:13
28.02.25	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Kubota Spears	31:27
07.04.24	Kubota Spears - Toshiba Brave Lupus	20:22
07.01.24	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Kubota Spears	24:20
24.02.23	Kubota Spears - Toshiba Brave Lupus	46:27
27.05.22	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Kubota Spears	15:23
19.03.22	Toshiba Brave Lupus - Kubota Spears	28:43

Toshiba Brave Lupus - Kubota Spears: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide