Match Info

Top 14 - Round 8

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Ernest-Wallon (Toulouse)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France
Peru	Movistar Deportes
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Toulouse		Toulon

	1	X	2
	1.01	51	19
	1.02	50	12
	1.03	33.31	15.69	Watch
	1.01	29	17.7
	1.04	50	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.02 ↓ (1.03)	42.66 ↑ (33.31)	15.08 ↓ (15.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 61.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-28)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
91.6%

Draw
2.2%

Toulon
6.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

91.2%

2.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Toulon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Toulouse - Toulon Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Toulon will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 45:17

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neti R.	1. Gros J. B.
2. Marchand J.	2. Damond P.
3. Aldegheri D.	3. Sinckler K.
4. Flament T.	4. Ollivon C.
5. Meafou E.	5. Rebbadj S.
6. Willis J.	6. Karaba J.
7. Roumat A.	7. Ludlam L.
8. Jelonch A.	8. Coulon J.
9. Graou P.	9. Le Bail C.
10. Ntamack R.	10. Domon M.
11. Mallia J.	11. Ferte M.
12. Chocobares S.	12. Sinzelle J.
13. Gourgues K.	13. Smaili M.
14. Thomas T.	14. Rebbadj R.
15. Kinghorn B.	15. Jaminet M.
Substitutes
16. Cramont G.	16. Baubigny T.
17. Ainuu D.	17. Brennan D.
18. Elias E.	18. Alainu'uese B.
19. Ntamack T.	19. Mezou C.
20. Castro-Ferreira M.	20. Mercer Z.
21. Capuozzo A.	21. Garcia M.
22. Ramos T.	22. Nonu M.
23. Colombe Reazel G.	23. Priso D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (24 - 3)
6', Mallia J. (Try),
6', Kinghorn B. (Conversion Goal),
11', Jaminet M. (Penalty Goal),
22', Kinghorn B. (Penalty Goal),
28', Rebbadj S. 🟨,
29', Marchand J. (Try),
29', Kinghorn B. (Conversion Goal),
36', Ntamack R. (Try),
36', Kinghorn B. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (35 - 21)
47', Mallia J. (Try),
47', Kinghorn B. (Conversion Goal),
51', Chocobares S. 🟨,
53', Ferte M. (Try),
53', Jaminet M. (Conversion Goal),
57', Capuozzo A. (Try),
57', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
62', Mallia J. (Try),
62', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
64', Ferte M. (Try),
64', Jaminet M. (Conversion Goal),
68', Nonu M. 🟨,
68', Ramos T. (Try),
68', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
73', Karaba J. 🟨,
75', Smaili M. (Try),
75', Garcia M. (Conversion Goal),
78', Cramont G. (Try),
78', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Toulouse may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Toulouse is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 488:347. (average 24.4:17.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 306:125. (average 30.6:12.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Toulouse - the odds 1.03 are the expected chance of winning is 91.19%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Toulousain
French Top 14
18.10.25	Section Paloise - Toulouse	30:26 ✺
12.10.25	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	56:13 ✺
05.10.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulouse	40:26 ✺
27.09.25	Toulouse - Castres	59:12 ✺
20.09.25	Montpellier - Toulouse	44:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LWLWL
- RC Toulonnais
French Top 14
19.10.25	Toulon - Racing Métro	38:21 ✺
11.10.25	Clermont - Toulon	27:10 ✺
04.10.25	Toulon - Section Paloise	33:17 ✺
28.09.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulon	35:32 ✺
13.09.25	Toulon - Castres	16:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
10.05.25	Toulon - Toulouse	16:50
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.04.25	Toulon - Toulouse	18:21
French Top 14
27.10.24	Toulouse - Toulon	57:5
20.04.24	Toulon - Toulouse	20:19
23.12.23	Toulouse - Toulon	25:17
18.02.23	Toulon - Toulouse	17:6
11.09.22	Toulouse - Toulon	28:8

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