Match Info

Top 14 - Round 4

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Ernest-Wallon (Toulouse)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports Player


	Toulouse		Castres

	1	X	2
	1.04	51	10
	1.03	45	10
	1.11	29.50	6.70	Watch
	1.03	50	13
	1.05	51	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.05 ↑ (1.02)	45.3 ↓ (50)	9.94 ↓ (15)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-24)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
88.6%

Draw
2.1%

Castres
9.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

91.9%

1.9%

6.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Toulouse - Castres Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Castres will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -24 - Toulouse (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 41:17

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neti R.	1. Tichit A.
2. Cramont G.	2. Zarantonello L.
3. Merkler J.	3. Chilachava L.
4. Brennan J.	4. Ducat G.
5. Flament T.	5. Jedrasiak P.
6. Willis J.	6. Babillot M.
7. Banos L.	7. Vanverberghe F.
8. Ntamack T.	8. Cope B.
9. Graou P.	9. Arata S.
10. Ntamack R.	10. Popelin P.
11. Barassi P.	11. Vargas A.
12. Gourgues K.	12. Goodhue J.
13. Costes P.	13. Seguret A.
14. Kinghorn B.	14. Hulleu N.
15. Ramos T.	15. Palis G.
Substitutes
16. Lacombre T.	16. Colonna P.
17. Bertrand B.	17. Sokobale A.
18. Elias E.	18. Staniforth T.
19. Roumat A.	19. Maravat G.
20. Saito N.	20. Meka S.
21. Ahki P.	21. Doubrere G.
22. Lebel M.	22. Chabouni T.
23. Aldegheri D.	23. Collier W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 12)
3', Popelin P. (Penalty Goal),
11', Popelin P. (Penalty Goal),
16', Cramont G. (Try),
17', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
20', Popelin P. (Penalty Goal),
30', Palis G. (Penalty Goal),
35', Cramont G. (Try),
36', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
40+1', Cramont G. (Try),
2nd Half (40 - 0)
42', Ntamack T. (Try),
42', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
46', Ntamack T. (Try),
46', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
55', Lebel M. (Try),
55', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
63', Barassi P. (Try),
69', Chabouni T. 🟨,
76', Ahki P. (Try),
77', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
80', Lebel M. (Try),
80', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 2.

In this match, Toulouse is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 12 matches, and goals 458:436. (average 22.9:21.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 280:166. (average 28:16.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Toulousain
French Top 14
20.09.25	Montpellier - Toulouse	44:14 ✺
13.09.25	Toulouse - Perpignan	31:13 ✺
07.09.25	Clermont - Toulouse	24:34 ✺
28.06.25	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	39:33 OT ✺
20.06.25	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	32:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWWWW
- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
20.09.25	Castres - Aviron Bayonnais	48:17 ✺
13.09.25	Toulon - Castres	16:12 ✺
06.09.25	Castres - Section Paloise	15:17 ✺
14.06.25	Toulon - Castres	52:23 ✺
07.06.25	Stade Français - Castres	21:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
26.04.25	Toulouse - Castres	52:6
05.10.24	Castres - Toulouse	28:23
02.03.24	Toulouse - Castres	33:6
18.11.23	Castres - Toulouse	31:23
25.03.23	Castres - Toulouse	27:17
23.12.22	Toulouse - Castres	22:18
17.06.22	Castres - Toulouse	24:18

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