Match Info

Top 14 - Round 2

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Mayol (Toulon)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Toulon		Castres

	1	X	2
	1.14	34	5.5
	1.15	30	5.2
	1.22	24.71	4.59	Watch
	1.11	26	6
	1.13	30	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.15 ↑ (1.14)	28.94 ↑ (28.67)	5.5 ↓ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-14)

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Toulon
80.1%

Draw
3.2%

Castres
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

80.5%

3.2%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Toulon - Castres Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Toulon will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Castres will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Castres (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:19

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gros J. B.	1. Galisson L.
2. Damond P.	2. Durand T.
3. Gigashvili B.	3. Corato N.
4. Rebbadj S.	4. Jedrasiak P.
5. Ribbans D. (C)	5. Staniforth T.
6. Karaba J.	6. Delaporte B. (C)
7. Ludlam L.	7. Ardron T.
8. Mercer Z.	8. Tukino F.
9. Serin B.	9. Arata S.
10. Garbisi P.	10. Le Brun L.
11. Ferte M.	11. Vargas A.
12. Cowie O.	12. Seguret A.
13. Brex N.	13. Botitu V.
14. Drean G.	14. Ambadiang C.
15. Domon M.	15. Chabouni T.
Substitutes
16. Baubigny T.	16. Zarantonello L.
17. Brennan D.	17. Tichit A.
18. Alainu'uese B.	18. Maravat G.
19. Halagahu M.	19. Cope B.
20. Coulon J.	20. Doubrere G.
21. Tuicuvu S.	21. Popelin P.
22. Jaminet M.	22. Goodhue J.
23. Priso D.	23. Collier W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (6 - 9)
5', Le Brun L. (Penalty Goal),
13', Domon M. (Penalty Goal),
31', Le Brun L. (Penalty Goal),
33', Le Brun L. (Penalty Goal),
37', Domon M. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (10 - 3)
49', Le Brun L. (Penalty Goal),
59', Drean G. (Try),
59', Jaminet M. (Conversion Goal),
68', Jaminet M. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulon won 3.

In this match, Toulon is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulon won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 538:431. (average 26.9:21.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulon won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 376:204. (average 31.3:17).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Toulonnais
French Top 14
06.09.25	Montpellier - Toulon	17:27 ✺
21.06.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulon	39:24 ✺
14.06.25	Toulon - Castres	52:23 ✺
07.06.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulon	18:10 ✺
01.06.25	Toulon - Bordeaux Bègles	27:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWLW
- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
06.09.25	Castres - Section Paloise	15:17 ✺
14.06.25	Toulon - Castres	52:23 ✺
07.06.25	Stade Français - Castres	21:10 ✺
31.05.25	Castres - Aviron Bayonnais	33:3 ✺
24.05.25	Castres - Clermont	34:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
14.06.25	Toulon - Castres	52:23
29.03.25	Castres - Toulon	28:26
14.09.24	Toulon - Castres	30:28
18.02.24	Castres - Toulon	25:17
25.11.23	Toulon - Castres	41:19
22.04.23	Castres - Toulon	31:18
22.10.22	Toulon - Castres	28:20

Upcoming Matches