Match Info

Top 14 - Round 5

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Jean-Dauger (Bayonne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Aviron Bayonnais		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	2.63	21	1.53
	2.44	22	1.57
	2.33	24.38	1.64	Watch
	2.5	17	1.59
	2.47	22	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.4)	21.28 ↑ (18.5)	1.58 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aviron Bayonnais
37.3%

Draw
4.3%

Toulouse
58.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

4.9%

57%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aviron Bayonnais has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Aviron Bayonnais - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Bayonne will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Toulouse will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayonne (votes: 3 - 50%). Toulouse (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Toulouse (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2, 1st Half - Toulouse (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -4.5 - Toulouse (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Half - Toulouse (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Toulouse (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 48.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -4 - Toulouse (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayonne (votes: 3 - 25%). Toulouse (votes: 9 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:28

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bordelai A.	1. Bertrand B.
2. Bosch F.	2. Lacombre T.
3. Setiano E.	3. Aldegheri D.
4. Iturria A.	4. Jelonch A.
5. Johnson E.	5. Verge C.
6. Fischer A.	6. Willis J.
7. Capilla E.	7. Roumat A.
8. Leota R.	8. Ntamack T.
9. Germain B.	9. Graou P.
10. Segonds J.	10. Ntamack R.
11. Erbinartegaray A.	11. Lebel M.
12. Tuilagi M.	12. Ahki P.
13. Martocq G.	13. Costes P.
14. Spring T.	14. Delibes D.
15. Orabe Y.	15. Kinghorn B.
Substitutes
16. Martin L.	16. Cramont G.
17. Castillon P.	17. Neti R.
18. Moon A.	18. Flament T.
19. Heguy B.	19. Elias E.
20. Habel Kueffner G.	20. Banos L.
21. Machenaud M.	21. Saito N.
22. Tiberghien C.	22. Ramos T.
23. Cotet P.	23. Merkler J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (16 - 16)
10', Segonds J. (Penalty Goal),
12', Lebel M. (Try),
16', Iturria A. (Try),
16', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
22', Segonds J. (Penalty Goal),
28', Ntamack T. (Try),
31', Segonds J. (Penalty Goal),
34', Tuilagi M. 🟨,
35', Ntamack R. (Penalty Goal),
39', Ntamack R. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (24 - 10)
44', Ntamack R. (Penalty Goal),
52', Germain B. (Try),
54', Colombe Reazel G. (Try),
61', Ramos T. (Penalty Goal),
70', Capilla E. (Try),
70', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
74', Tiberghien C. (Try),
74', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
80', Spring T. (Try),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 2.

Toulouse may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Toulouse will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 335:506. (average 17.6:26.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayonne won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 182:151. (average 20.2:16.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
French Top 14
28.09.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulon	35:32 ✺
20.09.25	Castres - Aviron Bayonnais	48:17 ✺
13.09.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Montpellier	26:23 ✺
06.09.25	Perpignan - Aviron Bayonnais	19:26 ✺
20.06.25	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	32:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWWL
- Stade Toulousain
French Top 14
27.09.25	Toulouse - Castres	59:12 ✺
20.09.25	Montpellier - Toulouse	44:14 ✺
13.09.25	Toulouse - Perpignan	31:13 ✺
07.09.25	Clermont - Toulouse	24:34 ✺
28.06.25	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	39:33 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
20.06.25	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	32:25
22.02.25	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	41:6
03.11.24	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulouse	12:8
03.02.24	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	46:26
18.08.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulouse	26:7
04.02.23	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	21:16
29.10.22	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulouse	26:22

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