Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 1

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday

Location: Sydney Football Stadium (Sydney)

Referee: Williams P. (Nzl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport


	Waratahs		Reds

	1	X	2
	1.71	19	2.25
	1.74	22	2.13
	1.77	22.06	2.16
	1.73	23	2.1
	1.69	19	2.3
	1.71	19	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.82)	20.68 ↑ (20.38)	2.21 ↑ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Waratahs
53.6%

Draw
4.5%

Reds
41.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.8%

4.5%

62.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Waratahs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Waratahs's performance.

Reds has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Reds might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Waratahs - Reds Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Waratahs will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Reds will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Waratahs (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Reds (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:27

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lambert T.	1. Ross A.
2. Dobbins E.	2. Faessler M.
3. Botha D.	3. Nonggorr Z.
4. Philip M. (C)	4. Canham J.
5. Amatosero M.	5. Salakaia-Loto L.
6. Halaholo C.	6. Brial J.
7. Gamble C.	7. Mcreight F. (C)
8. Samu P.	8. Latu V.
9. Gordon J.	9. Werchon L.
10. Creighton L.	10. McLaughlin-Phillips H.
11. Jorgensen M.	11. Ryan T.
12. Walton J.	12. Paisami H.
13. Sua'ali'i J.	13. Flook J.
14. Potter H.	14. Anderson L.
15. Hendren J.	15. Campbell J.
Substitutes
16. Faingaa F.	16. Asiata R.
17. Kailea I.	17. Blake G.
18. Amone S.	18. Toomaga-Allen J.
19. Blyth A.	19. Uru S.
20. Talataina L.	20. Bryant J.
21. Wilson T.	21. Martens J.
22. Debreczeni J.	22. Mackay F.
23. Reilly T.	23. Rubens X.
Coaches
. McKellar D.	. Kiss L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 12)
7', Halaholo C. (Try),
8', Creighton L. (Conversion Goal),
21', Ryan T. (Try),
22', McLaughlin-Phillips H. (Missed Conversion),
37', Salakaia-Loto L. 🟨,
38', Creighton L. (Penalty Goal),
40', Jorgensen M. (Try),
40', Creighton L. (Conversion Goal),
40+2', Brial J. (Try),
40+3', McLaughlin-Phillips H. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (19 - 0)
50', Nonggorr Z. ↓, Toomaga-Allen J. ↑,
50', Latu V. ↓, Bryant J. ↑,
50', Gordon J. ↓, Wilson T. ↑,
50', Halaholo C. ↓, Talataina L. ↑,
50', Dobbins E. ↓, Faingaa F. ↑,
50', Amatosero M. ↓, Blyth A. ↑,
52', Faessler M. ↓, Asiata R. ↑,
52', Ross A. ↓, Blake G. ↑,
53', Flook J. ↓, Rubens X. ↑,
57', Lambert T. ↓, Kailea I. ↑,
59', Potter H. ↓, Reilly T. ↑,
61', Faingaa F. ↓, Dobbins E. ↑,
64', Salakaia-Loto L. ↓, Uru S. ↑,
64', Walton J. ↓, Debreczeni J. ↑,
67', Kailea I. (Try),
68', McLaughlin-Phillips H. ↓, Mackay F. ↑,
68', Creighton L. (Conversion Goal),
72', Jorgensen M. (Try),
73', Creighton L. (Conversion Goal),
79', Wilson T. (Try),
80', Creighton L. (Missed Conversion),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Waratahs won 1.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Waratahs won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 553:514. (average 27.7:25.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Waratahs won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 295:198. (average 29.5:19.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Waratahs Rugby
Super Rugby AUS
05.10.25	Western Force - Waratahs	26:33 ✺
27.09.25	Brumbies - Waratahs	34:42 ✺
20.09.25	Waratahs - Reds	47:19 ✺
12.09.25	Waratahs - Western Force	3:24 ✺
Lions Tour
05.07.25	Waratahs - British&Irish Lions	10:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 35.9 WWWLL
- Reds Rugby
Super Rugby AUS
28.09.25	Western Force - Reds	22:47 ✺
20.09.25	Waratahs - Reds	47:19 ✺
14.09.25	Reds - Brumbies	36:26 ✺
Lions Tour
02.07.25	Reds - British&Irish Lions	12:52 ✺
Super Rugby
06.06.25	Crusaders - Reds	32:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby AUS
20.09.25	Waratahs - Reds	47:19
Super Rugby
09.05.25	Waratahs - Reds	21:28
15.03.25	Reds - Waratahs	35:15
31.05.24	Waratahs - Reds	26:27
24.02.24	Reds - Waratahs	40:22
06.05.23	Reds - Waratahs	24:32
26.03.22	Reds - Waratahs	32:20

Waratahs - Reds: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide