Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 14

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: HBF Park (Perth)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
United-kingdom	Sky Go, Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Western Force		Reds

	1	X	2
	1.67	21	2.3
	1.63	22	2.32
	1.66	20.45	2.35
	1.6	23	2.3
	1.64	18	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (2.04)	20.89 ↓ (22)	2.33 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Western Force
56.1%

Draw
4.4%

Reds
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

4.1%

51.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

4.3%

53.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Western Force has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Western Force's performance.

Reds has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Reds might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Western Force than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Western Force that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Reds than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Reds could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Western Force - Reds Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 2nd Half - draw (8.00) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (8.00) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

O/U 51.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 55.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Western Force will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:27

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Johnson-Holmes H.	1. Blake G.
2. Paenga-Amosa B.	2. Nasser J.
3. Epenisa M.	3. De Lutiis M.
4. Williams J.	4. Muller H.
5. Swain D.	5. Uru S.
6. Champion de Crespigny R.	6. Brial J.
7. Tizzano C.	7. Bryant J.
8. Ekuasi V.	8. Wilson H.
9. Hastie N.	9. Werchon L.
10. Burey M.	10. Gordon C.
11. Pietsch D.	11. Anderson L.
12. Stewart H.	12. Paisami H.
13. Bridge G.	13. Henry I.
14. Lomax Z.	14. Ryan T.
15. Grealy M.	15. Campbell J.
Substitutes
16. Dolly N.	16. Faessler M.
17. Pearce M.	17. Toomaga-Allen J.
18. Faagase S.	18. Nonggorr Z.
19. Molina F.	19. Brosnan C.
20. Harris W.	20. Latu V.
21. Moyano A.	21. Thomas K.
22. Kuenzle B.	22. Volavola B.
23. Beale K.	23. Pritchard T.
Coaches
. Cron S.	. Kiss L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 7)
5', Tizzano C. (Try),
6', Burey M. (Conversion Goal),
19', Brial J. (Try),
20', Werchon L. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 7)
43', Grealy M. (Try),
44', Burey M. (Conversion Goal),
45', De Lutiis M. ↓, Nonggorr Z. ↑,
47', Nasser J. ↓, Faessler M. ↑,
48', Bryant J. ↓, Latu V. ↑,
48', Paisami H. ↓, Pritchard T. ↑,
50', Ryan T. (Try),
51', Werchon L. (Conversion Goal),
51', Paenga-Amosa B. ↓, Dolly N. ↑,
51', Johnson-Holmes H. ↓, Pearce M. ↑,
51', Swain D. ↓, Molina F. ↑,
54', Tizzano C. (Try),
55', Burey M. (Missed Conversion),
55', Epenisa M. ↓, Faagase S. ↑,
56', Stewart H. ↓, Beale K. ↑,
63', Werchon L. ↓, Thomas K. ↑,
66', Blake G. ↓, Toomaga-Allen J. ↑,
66', Gordon C. ↓, Volavola B. ↑,
68', Ekuasi V. ↓, Harris W. ↑,
68', Hastie N. ↓, Moyano A. ↑,
76', Grealy M. ↓, Kuenzle B. ↑,
76', Muller H. ↓, Brosnan C. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Western Force won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Reds may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Western Force has had a series of away games.

Recently, Reds has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

We predict that Western Force will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Western Force won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 462:634. (average 23.1:31.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Western Force won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 223:361. (average 22.3:36.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Western Force Rugby
Super Rugby
09.05.26	Brumbies - Western Force	32:15 ✺
01.05.26	Waratahs - Western Force	17:20 ✺
18.04.26	Western Force - Crusaders	31:26 ✺
11.04.26	Fijian Drua - Western Force	24:22 ✺
04.04.26	Reds - Western Force	19:42 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 LWWLW
- Reds Rugby
Super Rugby
08.05.26	Reds - Chiefs	21:31 ✺
02.05.26	Reds - Brumbies	30:21 ✺
25.04.26	Blues - Reds	36:33 OT ✺
11.04.26	Reds - Crusaders	31:26 ✺
04.04.26	Reds - Western Force	19:42 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
04.04.26	Reds - Western Force	19:42
Super Rugby AUS
28.09.25	Western Force - Reds	22:47
Super Rugby
29.03.25	Reds - Western Force	28:24
01.03.25	Western Force - Reds	24:28
25.05.24	Reds - Western Force	59:13
23.03.24	Western Force - Reds	40:31
29.04.23	Reds - Western Force	31:17

Western Force - Reds: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide