Match Info

Date: 25 February 2022, Friday


	Worcester Warriors		Harlequins

	1	X	2
	3.1	21	1.4
	2.88	23	1.4
	3.25	26	1.35
	3.15	22	1.35
	3.2	21	1.36
	3.15	27	1.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.44)	23.33 ↓ (23.67)	1.38 ↓ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Worcester Warriors
29.4%

Draw
3.9%

Harlequins
66.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

3.9%

58.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

3.7%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Worcester Warriors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Worcester Warriors's form might have worsened.

Harlequins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Harlequins's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Worcester Warriors than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Worcester Warriors, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harlequins than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Harlequins, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Worcester Warriors - Harlequins Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Worcester Warriors will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Harlequins will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Worcester Warriors: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:28

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Premiership Rugby (Play Offs)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Worcester Warriors won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Harlequins is a favorite.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Worcester Warriors won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 13 matches and goals 423-519.

Including matches at home between the teams Worcester Warriors won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 170-193.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Worcester Warriors
English Premiership Rugby
18.02.22	Worcester Warriors - Bristol Rugby	19:14 ✺
12.02.22	Sale Sharks - Worcester Warriors	36:12 ✺
05.02.22	Leicester Tigers - Worcester Warriors	36:16 ✺
29.01.22	Worcester Warriors - Northampton Saints	13:29 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
22.01.22	Zebre - Worcester Warriors	26:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLLLW
- Harlequin FC
English Premiership Rugby
19.02.22	Harlequins - Wasps RFC	29:24 ✺
13.02.22	Saracens - Harlequins	19:10 ✺
06.02.22	Harlequins - Sale Sharks	14:36 ✺
28.01.22	Bath - Harlequins	21:17 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
21.01.22	Harlequins - Castres	36:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premiership Rugby
25.09.21	Harlequins - Worcester Warriors	35:29
17.04.21	Harlequins - Worcester Warriors	50:26
01.01.21	Worcester Warriors - Harlequins	Canceled
26.08.20	Worcester Warriors - Harlequins	29:14
09.11.19	Harlequins - Worcester Warriors	14:19
Challenge Cup Rugby
30.03.19	Worcester Warriors - Harlequins	16:18
English Premiership Rugby
16.02.19	Harlequins - Worcester Warriors	47:33

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