Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 11

Date: 19 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Distrital do Jardim Inamar (Sao Paulo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, UOL Play, Zapping
Usa	Fanatiz


	Água Santa		Internacional de Limeira

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.2	Watch
	2.23	2.95	3.15	Watch
	2.25	3.22	3.39
	2.24	3.19	3.29	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.2
	2.24	3.33	3.33	Watch
	2.23	2.95	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.55)	3.13 ↑ (3.04)	3.24 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Água Santa
41.9%

Draw
29.6%

Internacional de Limeira
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

30.1%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

29.1%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Água Santa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Água Santa's performance.

Internacional de Limeira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Internacional de Limeira might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Água Santa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Internacional de Limeira than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Internacional de Limeira could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Água Santa - Internacional de Limeira Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Água Santa will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Inter de Limeira will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ygor Vinhas (C) 2. Ynaia 3. Robles Fuentes A. 4. Rafael Vaz 6. Renan Castro 5. Wesley Dias 10. Netinho 8. Ramon Vinicius 7. Gabriel Silva 11. Davi Gomes 9. Arthur Korek	12. Igo Gabriel (G) 17. Pablo 3. Guilherme Mariano (C) 34. Carlao 26. Juan Tavares 15. Marlon 21. Lucas Buchecha 20. Ruan Ribeiro 10. Albano 25. Ramon 18. Carrillo R.
Substitutes
19. Ademilson 14. Diego Anjos 21. Diogo Batista 13. Fabio Sanches 16. Guilherme Lazaroni 12. Luan Ribeiro (G) 15. Lucas Rocha 22. Marco Antonio 25. Mike 20. Robinho 17. Villian Guilherme 18. Willen Mota	11. Alex Sandro 31. Alysson Dutra 1. Andre Luiz (G) 19. Bernardo 28. Estevao 5. Flavio 16. Juninho 6. Leocovick 8. Ly I. 27. Mauricio 9. Rafael Silva
Coaches
Pintado	Marcio Fernandes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
10', Marlon 🟨,
28', Robles Fuentes A. ↓, Fabio Sanches ↑,
30', 0 - 1, Ruan Ribeiro ⚽,
38', 0 - 2, Ruan Ribeiro ⚽, Ramon (A),
40', Marlon ↓, Flavio ↑,
41', Ramon 🟨,
45+2', Wesley Dias 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Wesley Dias ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
46', Ramon ↓, Rafael Silva ↑,
48', 1 - 2, Davi Gomes ⚽,
54', Ruan Ribeiro 🟨,
57', Pablo ↓, Bernardo ↑,
59', Gabriel Silva ↓, Robinho ↑,
59', Arthur Korek ↓, Ademilson ↑,
62', Igo Gabriel 🟨,
78', Albano ↓, Mauricio ↑,
78', Ruan Ribeiro ↓, Alex Sandro ↑,
84', Rafael Vaz ↓, Willen Mota ↑,
84', Lucas Buchecha 🟨,
87', Netinho 🟨,
90', 2 - 2, Ademilson (Pen),
90+1', Diogo Batista 🟥,

Preview

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Água Santa will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Água Santa won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Água Santa won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:2 (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Água Santa
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
16.02.25	Santos - Água Santa	3:1 ✺
12.02.25	Água Santa - Portuguesa	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Água Santa - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
06.02.25	Guarani - Água Santa	4:0 ✺
02.02.25	Água Santa - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTTLL
- Internacional de Limeira
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
16.02.25	Velo Clube - Internacional de Limeira	2:1 ✺
13.02.25	Internacional de Limeira - Palmeiras	0:3 ✺
10.02.25	São Paulo - Internacional de Limeira	0:0 ✺
07.02.25	Portuguesa - Internacional de Limeira	2:0 ✺
04.02.25	Internacional de Limeira - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
06.07.24	Água Santa - Internacional de Limeira	1:0
11.05.24	Internacional de Limeira - Água Santa	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.02.24	Água Santa - Internacional de Limeira	2:1
18.02.23	Internacional de Limeira - Água Santa	0:1
08.03.20	Água Santa - Internacional de Limeira	1:1

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