Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 6

Date: 2 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Distrital do Jardim Inamar (Sao Paulo)

Referee: dos Santos F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Brasileirao Play, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping
Portugal	Canal 11
Usa	Fanatiz


	Água Santa		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.1	2.5	Watch
	2.95	3.1	2.45
	2.8	2.85	2.47
	2.94	3.05	2.63
	2.89	3.05	2.55	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.5
	2.83	3.13	2.53	Watch
	2.8	2.85	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.41)	3 ↓ (3.11)	2.51 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Água Santa
32.4%

Draw
30.8%

Ponte Preta
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

29.8%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

29.2%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Água Santa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Água Santa's form might have worsened.

Ponte Preta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Água Santa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Água Santa - Ponte Preta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ygor Vinhas (G) 2. Diogo Batista 3. Fabio Sanches (C) 4. Robles Fuentes A. 6. Renan Castro 11. Davi Gomes 5. Villian Guilherme 8. Netinho 7. Neilton 10. Luan Dias 9. Ademilson	12. Diogo Silva (G) 4. Saimon 26. Concha V. 14. Danilo Barcelos 2. Maguinho 55. Leo Oliveira 18. Emerson Santos 15. Artur 10. Elvis (C) 31. Victor Andrade 90. Darnlei
Substitutes
22. Arthur Korek 13. Diego Anjos 19. Gabriel Silva 16. Guilherme Lazaroni 12. Luan Ribeiro (G) 15. Lucas Rocha 25. Mike 14. Rafael Vaz 20. Ramon Vinicius 17. Wesley Dias 21. Willen Mota 18. Ynaia	77. Bruno Lopes 8. Dudu 29. Everton Brito 7. Jean Dias 20. Joao Gabriel 25. Lucas Candido 27. Luiz Felipe 28. Pacheco 1. Pedro Rocha (G) 6. Sergio Raphael
Coaches
de Souza M.	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Leo Oliveira 🟨,
25', Elvis ↓, Jean Dias ↑,
45+3', 0 - 1, Danilo Barcelos (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Artur ↓, Dudu ↑,
57', Neilton ↓, Mike ↑,
63', Saimon 🟨,
67', Victor Andrade ↓, Everton Brito ↑,
67', Darnlei ↓, Bruno Lopes ↑,
75', Villian Guilherme ↓, Arthur Korek ↑,
75', Luan Dias ↓, Ramon Vinicius ↑,
75', Saimon ↓, Sergio Raphael ↑,
77', Arthur Korek 🟨,
82', Concha V. 🟨,
85', Netinho ↓, Wesley Dias ↑,
85', Davi Gomes ↓, Gabriel Silva ↑,

Preview

Água Santa is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ponte Preta is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Água Santa won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:7 (average 1.5:3.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Água Santa
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
29.01.25	Botafogo SP - Água Santa	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	Água Santa - Red Bull Bragantino	3:0 ✺
22.01.25	Corinthians - Água Santa	2:1 ✺
19.01.25	Mirassol - Água Santa	6:0 ✺
16.01.25	Água Santa - São Bernardo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TWLLL
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
29.01.25	Ponte Preta - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
25.01.25	Internacional de Limeira - Ponte Preta	1:1 ✺
22.01.25	Ponte Preta - Portuguesa	0:0 ✺
19.01.25	Ponte Preta - Santos	1:1 ✺
15.01.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
05.03.22	Ponte Preta - Água Santa	0:1
02.04.16	Ponte Preta - Água Santa	7:2

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