Match Info

Paulista A2 - Second stage - Round 4

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports


	Água Santa		Ituano

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.57	2.94	3.02
	2.64	2.73	2.88	Watch
	2.5	2.7	2.9
	2.52	2.69	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.36)	2.77 ↓ (2.95)	2.93 ↓ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Água Santa
35.7%

Draw
33%

Ituano
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

31%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

30.6%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Água Santa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Água Santa - Ituano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Leo Pereira ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, Lucas Stefanello ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+1', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Água Santa won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Água Santa won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Água Santa won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Água Santa
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
25.03.26	Ituano - Água Santa	3:0 ✺
18.03.26	Água Santa - Votuporanguense	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Piracicaba - Água Santa	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Água Santa - Osasco Sporting	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Atlético Monte Azul - Água Santa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTTWW
- Ituano
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
25.03.26	Ituano - Água Santa	3:0 ✺
18.03.26	Ituano - Piracicaba	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Votuporanguense - Ituano	3:0 ✺
07.03.26	Ituano - Atlético Monte Azul	3:3 ✺
01.03.26	Osasco Sporting - Ituano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
25.03.26	Ituano - Água Santa	3:0
18.02.26	Ituano - Água Santa	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
11.02.24	Água Santa - Ituano	2:0
05.02.23	Ituano - Água Santa	0:3
28.03.22	Ituano - Água Santa	3:2 penalties
09.02.22	Água Santa - Ituano	2:2
02.02.20	Água Santa - Ituano	1:1

Água Santa - Ituano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide