Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - 1/32-finals

Date: 27 June 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Água Santa		Velo Clube

	1	X	2
	1.87	2.95	4.00
	1.9	2.92	4.05
	1.99	3.1	4.36
	2.06	2.64	4.5	Watch
	1.96	2.75	4.3
	1.95	3.06	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.18)	2.9 ↓ (3.04)	4.26 ↑ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Água Santa
46.9%

Draw
31.6%

Velo Clube
21.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.3%

29.6%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

28.3%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Água Santa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Água Santa's performance.

Velo Clube has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Velo Clube might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Velo Clube than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Velo Clube could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Água Santa - Velo Clube Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Vitinho ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
83', 1 - 1, Gabriel Rossetto ⚽,
Penalties (1 - 4)
1, (Penalty Awarded),
1, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 0-0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Água Santa is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Água Santa won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 0.7:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Velo Clube - the odds 3.09 are the expected chance of winning is 29.11%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Água Santa
Brazilian Serie D
20.06.26	Velo Clube - Água Santa	0:0 ✺
06.06.26	America RJ - Água Santa	1:0 ✺
30.05.26	Água Santa - Madureira	4:1 ✺
23.05.26	Água Santa - Pouso Alegre	2:0 ✺
16.05.26	Portuguesa - Água Santa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 TLWWT
- Velo Clube
Brazilian Serie D
20.06.26	Velo Clube - Água Santa	0:0 ✺
07.06.26	Velo Clube - Maricá	3:1 ✺
30.05.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Velo Clube	1:0 ✺
23.05.26	Velo Clube - Piracicaba	1:1 ✺
16.05.26	EC Noroeste - Velo Clube	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
20.06.26	Velo Clube - Água Santa	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.02.25	Velo Clube - Água Santa	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
27.02.21	Velo Clube - Água Santa	0:2

Água Santa - Velo Clube