Match Info

Serie D - Round 9

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday


	Água Santa		Madureira

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.25	5
	1.63	3.34	5.61
	1.65	3.27	5.65	Watch
	1.62	3.1	5.5
	1.63	3.24	5.56
	1.84	3.15	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.84)	3.23 ↑ (3.15)	5.22 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Água Santa
54.5%

Draw
28.1%

Madureira
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

28.6%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

28.3%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Água Santa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Água Santa's performance.

Madureira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Madureira might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Água Santa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Madureira than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Água Santa - Madureira Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Levi ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
48', 2 - 0, Diogo Marzagao ⚽,
56', 2 - 1, Fashanu M. ⚽,
67', 3 - 1, Levi ⚽,
79', 4 - 1, Gustavinho ⚽,

Preview

Água Santa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Madureira is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Água Santa is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Água Santa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Água Santa
Brazilian Serie D
23.05.26	Água Santa - Pouso Alegre	2:0 ✺
16.05.26	Portuguesa - Água Santa	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Portuguesa RJ - Água Santa	2:2 ✺
02.05.26	Água Santa - Portuguesa RJ	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Água Santa - Portuguesa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WTTWL
- Madureira EC
Brazilian Serie D
23.05.26	Madureira - Portuguesa RJ	1:1 ✺
16.05.26	America RJ - Madureira	3:1 ✺
09.05.26	Madureira - Portuguesa	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Portuguesa - Madureira	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Madureira - America RJ	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
11.04.26	Madureira - Água Santa	3:1

Água Santa - Madureira: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide